Union Espanola 3-2 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Espanola vs U. Catolica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union Espanola host U. Catolica at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Primera División, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 May 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 1.08 xG and U. Catolica 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 1.011 / defence 1.248 | U. Catolica attack 0.678 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 0.938 / away 1.056. Data: 7 Union Espanola games / 6 U. Catolica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 37% | Draw 36% | U. Catolica 27%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | U. Catolica 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Espanola are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Espanola offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 37% | Draw 36% | U. Catolica 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Union Espanola 1.08 / U. Catolica 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 1.011 / def 1.248 | U. Catolica attack 0.678 / def 1.138 | league avg home 0.938 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
0.89
U. Catolica xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs U. Catolica kick off?
Union Espanola vs U. Catolica kicked off at 01:30 on Sunday 23 May 2021 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs U. Catolica?
Union Espanola 3 - 2 U. Catolica.
Where is Union Espanola vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs U. Catolica part of?
Union Espanola vs U. Catolica is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 37% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Union Espanola and U. Catolica will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and U. Catolica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Espanola and U. Catolica in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Union Espanola's attack rating (1.01) and U. Catolica's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, U. Catolica's attack versus Union Espanola's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
37%
2.70
36%
2.80
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
1.97
0.89
U. Catolica xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Union Espanola and 0.89 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs U. Catolica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Pre-Season
U. Catolica
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union Espanola and U. Catolica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
U. Catolica go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Union Espanola's record when hosting U. Catolica specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Espanola
2
Draws
6
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and U. Catolica?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 2, U. Catolica have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and U. Catolica last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when U. Catolica 2-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and U. Catolica?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Union Espanola edge out U. Catolica 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat U. Catolica 3-2 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 8, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.08 xG and U. Catolica 0.89 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Union Espanola beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. U. Catolica outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.01 / defence 1.25 against U. Catolica attack 0.68 / defence 1.14, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 37% | Draw 36% | U. Catolica 27%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.