Union Espanola 1-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Coquimbo Unido travel to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK to take on Union Espanola in Primera División (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 23:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Union Espanola have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Union Espanola at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Union Espanola are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Coquimbo Unido stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Coquimbo Unido away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Coquimbo Unido's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Union Espanola's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Union Espanola, 2 for Coquimbo Unido and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Union Espanola 1–3 Coquimbo Unido — a Coquimbo Unido win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Union Espanola trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Coquimbo Unido trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Espanola 52% versus Coquimbo Unido 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Espanola 47% | Coquimbo Unido 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Union Espanola surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Coquimbo Unido have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 1.18 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 0.956 / defence 1.180 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.947 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.325. Data: built from Union Espanola's last 32 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Union Espanola 30% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 44%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 3.32 | Draw 3.89 | Coquimbo Unido 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Union Espanola's last 10 home games and Coquimbo Unido's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union Espanola 50% (last 10 home games) | Coquimbo Unido 80% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Union Espanola 32 games, Coquimbo Unido 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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