Union Espanola 0-1 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Union Espanola face Cobresal.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK plays host to Union Espanola versus Cobresal in Primera División (matchday 10). Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 02:30 UK time.
Current Form
Union Espanola's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Union Espanola's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Union Espanola are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cobresal have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Cobresal's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Union Espanola, 3 for Cobresal and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Jul 2024, ended Union Espanola 2–1 Cobresal — a Union Espanola win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Union Espanola half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Espanola 48% versus Cobresal 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Espanola 52% | Cobresal 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Union Espanola surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Cobresal have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 1.45 xG and Cobresal 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 1.040 / defence 1.177 | Cobresal attack 1.007 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 0.929. Data: built from Union Espanola's last 38 games and Cobresal's last 39.
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 45% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 29%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 2.22 | Draw 3.82 | Cobresal 3.48. Union Espanola hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Espanola at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Espanola if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Union Espanola's last 10 home games and Cobresal's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union Espanola 70% (last 10 home games) | Cobresal 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, matchday 10 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 02:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 45% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Union Espanola 1.45 / Cobresal 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 1.040 / def 1.177 | Cobresal attack 1.007 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.557 / away 0.929 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Cobresal xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Espanola vs Cobresal FAQs
What time does Union Espanola vs Cobresal kick off?
Union Espanola vs Cobresal kicked off at 02:30 UK time on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Cobresal?
Union Espanola 0 - 1 Cobresal.
Where is Union Espanola vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Cobresal part of?
Union Espanola vs Cobresal is a Primera División fixture (matchday 10) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 45% chance of winning, Cobresal a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Union Espanola and Cobresal will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Espanola vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union Espanola's attack rating (1.04) and Cobresal's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (1.01x) against Union Espanola's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Union Espanola's last 38 games and Cobresal's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.82
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
2.55
1.10
Cobresal xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
7%
14.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Espanola vs Cobresal Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.10 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union Espanola come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 15D 22L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.43 PPG from 60 outings (23W 17D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Union Espanola against 1.43 for Cobresal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Union Espanola's home form reads 16W 5D 9L across their last 30 home games, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 30 away games (5W 10D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Espanola come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union Espanola are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.60 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cobresal in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
Union Espanola (Home) vs Cobresal (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Espanola
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
❓ Union Espanola vs Cobresal Form FAQs
What form are Union Espanola and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Union Espanola have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 23W 17D 20L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Espanola at home or Cobresal away?
Union Espanola's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Espanola at home: 1.77 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Union Espanola and Cobresal, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 26 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cobresal have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Espanola have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Espanola
3
Draws
5
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Espanola vs Cobresal H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Cobresal?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Espanola have won 2, Cobresal have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Cobresal last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 October 2025: Cobresal 1-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Cobresal?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Espanola 50%, Cobresal 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Union Espanola and 60% for Cobresal. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cobresal in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Espanola vs Cobresal Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Espanola and Cobresal matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union Espanola's recent matches and 50% of Cobresal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union Espanola and Cobresal matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Union Espanola's matches and 60% of Cobresal's.
Do Union Espanola and Cobresal matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Union Espanola's recent matches and 63% of Cobresal's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cobresal defy the odds to beat Union Espanola 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Union Espanola 0-1 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.45 xG and Cobresal 1.10 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Union Espanola fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.04 / defence 1.18 against Cobresal attack 1.01 / defence 0.90, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 45% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 29%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Cobresal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 52%, Cobresal 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.40 PPG, Cobresal 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Cobresal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.