Union Espanola 2-0 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Espanola vs Antofagasta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Espanola and Antofagasta meet at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Primera División, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 May 2022 at 01:30 UTC.
Current Form
Union Espanola's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Union Espanola have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Antofagasta have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Antofagasta's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Union Espanola, 0 for Antofagasta and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Union Espanola winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Union Espanola half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Antofagasta half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Espanola 66% and Antofagasta 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Espanola 62% | Antofagasta 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 1.50 xG and Antofagasta 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 1.130 / defence 1.005 | Antofagasta attack 0.925 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 0.988. Data: 44 Union Espanola games / 44 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 51% | Draw 27% | Antofagasta 23%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Antofagasta 4.35. Union Espanola hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Espanola at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Espanola if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Union Espanola 80% | Antofagasta 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 51% | Draw 27% | Antofagasta 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Union Espanola 1.50 / Antofagasta 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 1.130 / def 1.005 | Antofagasta attack 0.925 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.333 / away 0.988 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Antofagasta xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs Antofagasta kick off?
Union Espanola vs Antofagasta kicked off at 01:30 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Antofagasta?
Union Espanola 2 - 0 Antofagasta.
Where is Union Espanola vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Antofagasta part of?
Union Espanola vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 51% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Union Espanola and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Antofagasta?
Record (2 meetings): Union Espanola 1W | Draws 1 | Antofagasta 0W.
What form are Union Espanola and Antofagasta in?
Union Espanola (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Antofagasta (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Union Espanola's attack at 1.13x the league average against Antofagasta's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antofagasta's attack (0.93x) against Union Espanola's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.77
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
2.42
0.92
Antofagasta xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
5%
19.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Union Espanola and 0.92 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union Espanola come into this having played 32 games, going 15W 3D 14L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Antofagasta sit at 1.47 PPG from 32 outings (12W 11D 9L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Union Espanola against 1.47 for Antofagasta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Union Espanola's home form reads 9W 2D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Antofagasta have taken 1.12 points per game from 16 outings (3W 9D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Espanola come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union Espanola are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Antofagasta are on 1.06 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Current Season
Antofagasta
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Espanola and Antofagasta in coming into this match?
Union Espanola have gone 15W 3D 14L in their last 32 games (1.50 PPG), while Antofagasta have gone 12W 11D 9L in their last 32 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Espanola at home or Antofagasta away?
Union Espanola's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Espanola at home: 1.81 PPG; Antofagasta away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Union Espanola or Antofagasta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Espanola have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Antofagasta in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Espanola have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Antofagasta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Union Espanola
1
Draws
1
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 2, Antofagasta have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2022, when Antofagasta 2-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Antofagasta?
Union Espanola have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 81% for Union Espanola, 50% for Antofagasta — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Union Espanola) and 25% (Antofagasta).
On the defensive side: Antofagasta in 31%; Antofagasta in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Espanola play Antofagasta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Union Espanola's games and 50% of Antofagasta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Espanola vs Antofagasta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Union Espanola's recent games and 25% of Antofagasta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Espanola and Antofagasta tend to score early?
Union Espanola have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Antofagasta in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Espanola cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Antofagasta.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Antofagasta 2-0 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.50 xG and Antofagasta 0.92 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Antofagasta landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.13 / defence 1.00 against Antofagasta attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 51% | Draw 27% | Antofagasta 23%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 62%, Antofagasta 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Espanola's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Antofagasta's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.50 PPG, Antofagasta 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Espanola win broke the near-deadlock. Union Espanola (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Antofagasta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.