U. Catolica 0-1 Palestino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this U. Catolica vs Palestino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palestino make the trip to Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo to face U. Catolica in Primera División, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 July 2022 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
U. Catolica's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
U. Catolica at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — U. Catolica are significantly better at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo than their overall form suggests.
Palestino have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palestino's away record: 1W 7D 2L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Palestino are 0.60 PPG clear of U. Catolica in recent Primera División fixtures (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: U. Catolica 0W, Palestino 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 2–3 with Palestino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
U. Catolica — key trading statistics (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Palestino — key trading statistics (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 51% versus Palestino 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 65% | Palestino 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.21 xG and Palestino 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 0.977 / defence 0.811 | Palestino attack 0.931 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.025. Data: 49 U. Catolica games / 50 Palestino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 46% | Draw 30% | Palestino 24%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Palestino 4.17. U. Catolica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, U. Catolica are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Palestino (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on U. Catolica if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: U. Catolica 30% | Palestino 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jul 2022, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 46% | Draw 30% | Palestino 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG U. Catolica 1.21 / Palestino 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 0.977 / def 0.811 | Palestino attack 0.931 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Palestino xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Palestino kick off?
U. Catolica vs Palestino kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 24 July 2022 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Palestino?
U. Catolica 0 - 1 Palestino.
Where is U. Catolica vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Palestino part of?
U. Catolica vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 46% chance of winning, Palestino a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both U. Catolica and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Palestino?
Record (2 meetings): U. Catolica 0W | Draws 0 | Palestino 2W.
What form are U. Catolica and Palestino in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Palestino (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
U. Catolica's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Palestino's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Palestino's attack (0.93x) against U. Catolica's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
46%
2.15
30%
3.34
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
1.99
0.77
Palestino xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 10.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for U. Catolica and 0.77 for Palestino, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
U. Catolica come into this having played 49 games, going 29W 3D 17L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for U. Catolica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palestino sit at 1.43 PPG from 49 outings (18W 16D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
U. Catolica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Palestino — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
U. Catolica's home form reads 20W 3D 2L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.84 PPG overall — U. Catolica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Palestino have taken 1.12 points per game from 25 outings (6W 10D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, U. Catolica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
U. Catolica are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Palestino are on 1.39 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palestino in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Blended
Palestino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Palestino in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 29W 3D 17L in their last 49 games (1.84 PPG), while Palestino have gone 18W 16D 15L in their last 49 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Palestino away?
U. Catolica's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 2.52 PPG; Palestino away: 1.12 PPG.
Have U. Catolica or Palestino been keeping clean sheets recently?
U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Palestino in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 2 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: U. Catolica have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: U. Catolica won 6-1 on 2 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, U. Catolica have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Palestino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
U. Catolica
2
Draws
4
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Palestino?
From 10 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 4, Palestino have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2026, when U. Catolica 6-1 Palestino.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 44%, Palestino 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (U. Catolica) and 52% (Palestino). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: U. Catolica keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Palestino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of U. Catolica's games and 68% of Palestino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is U. Catolica vs Palestino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of U. Catolica's matches and 52% of Palestino's.
Do U. Catolica and Palestino tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Palestino in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palestino defy the odds to beat U. Catolica 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino beat U. Catolica 0-1 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, Regular Season - 19, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.21 xG and Palestino 0.77 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. U. Catolica fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 0.98 / defence 0.81 against Palestino attack 0.93 / defence 0.83, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 46% | Draw 30% | Palestino 24%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Palestino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 65%, Palestino 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Palestino's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.43. Form was overturned, with Palestino winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. U. Catolica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Palestino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.