Palestino 2-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palestino at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Coquimbo Unido make the trip to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna to face Palestino in Primera División, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Palestino's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palestino have posted 5W 3D 2L at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Palestino are significantly better at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna than their overall form suggests.
Coquimbo Unido have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Palestino's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Coquimbo Unido's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Palestino lead 1W to 0W over the last 5 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Jun 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Palestino half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 52% versus Coquimbo Unido 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 48% | Coquimbo Unido 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 2.04 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 1.178 / defence 0.928 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.943 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.093. Data: 56 Palestino games / 56 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palestino 62% | Draw 21% | Coquimbo Unido 17%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Coquimbo Unido 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Palestino (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palestino are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Palestino 50% | Coquimbo Unido 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 62% | Draw 21% | Coquimbo Unido 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG Palestino 2.04 / Coquimbo Unido 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 1.178 / def 0.928 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.943 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Palestino (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Coquimbo Unido xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Palestino 2 - 0 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 62% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Palestino and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (5 meetings): Palestino 1W | Draws 4 | Coquimbo Unido 0W.
What form are Palestino and Coquimbo Unido in?
Palestino (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palestino's attack at 1.18x the league average against Coquimbo Unido's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (0.94x) against Palestino's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
62%
1.60
21%
4.83
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Palestino xG
Total xG
2.99
0.95
Coquimbo Unido xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
2%
45.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Palestino and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Palestino and 0.95 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palestino's recent record stands at 24W 14D 18L from 56 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 18L across 56 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Palestino against 1.57 for Coquimbo Unido. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Palestino have managed 14W 6D 7L from 27 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Coquimbo Unido's away record stands at 10W 6D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palestino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palestino are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.39 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 62%.
Last 56 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palestino and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 24W 14D 18L in their last 56 games (1.54 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 25W 13D 18L in their last 56 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Palestino's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.78 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Palestino or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palestino won 5-1 on 16 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palestino have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Palestino
5
Draws
2
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Coquimbo Unido?
From 10 meetings on record, Palestino have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Palestino 2-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Coquimbo Unido?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 48%, Coquimbo Unido 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Palestino) and 52% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palestino play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Palestino's games and 63% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Palestino's recent games and 52% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palestino and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Palestino have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palestino cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Coquimbo Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino beat Coquimbo Unido 2-0 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 2.04 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.95 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.18 / defence 0.93 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.94 / defence 1.16, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 62% | Draw 21% | Coquimbo Unido 17%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 48%, Coquimbo Unido 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palestino 1.54 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palestino win broke the near-deadlock. Palestino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.