Palestino 5-0 Cobreloa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Palestino at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palestino vs Cobreloa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cobreloa make the trip to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna to face Palestino in Primera División, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 21:00 UTC.
Form
Palestino (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Palestino's home record at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 1.65 xG and Cobreloa 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 1.099 / defence 0.904 | Cobreloa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.455. Data: 30 Palestino games / 1 Cobreloa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Palestino 50% | Draw 24% | Cobreloa 26%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Cobreloa 3.85. Palestino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palestino are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palestino if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Cobreloa | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 50% | Draw 24% | Cobreloa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Palestino 1.65 / Cobreloa 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 1.099 / def 0.904 | Cobreloa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Palestino (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Cobreloa xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Cobreloa kick off?
Palestino vs Cobreloa kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Cobreloa?
Palestino 5 - 0 Cobreloa.
Where is Palestino vs Cobreloa being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Cobreloa part of?
Palestino vs Cobreloa is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Cobreloa?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 50% chance of winning, Cobreloa a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Cobreloa?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Palestino and Cobreloa will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Cobreloa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Cobreloa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palestino and Cobreloa in?
Palestino (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Palestino home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Palestino's attack at 1.10x the league average against Cobreloa's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cobreloa's attack (0.85x) against Palestino's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 30/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
50%
2.01
24%
4.09
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Palestino xG
Total xG
2.76
1.12
Cobreloa xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
5%
20.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Cobreloa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Palestino and Cobreloa expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Palestino and 1.12 for Cobreloa, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Cobreloa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Pre-Season
Cobreloa
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since February 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Palestino
0
Draws
1
Cobreloa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Cobreloa?
From 2 meetings on record, Palestino have won 1, Cobreloa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Cobreloa last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2024, when Cobreloa 3-1 Palestino.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Cobreloa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Palestino run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Cobreloa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino beat Cobreloa 5-0 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.65 xG and Cobreloa 1.12 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Palestino beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cobreloa landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.10 / defence 0.90 against Cobreloa attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 50% | Draw 24% | Cobreloa 26%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.