Nublense 1-0 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Universidad de Chile fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún plays host to Nublense versus Universidad de Chile in Primera División, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Thursday 4 November 2021 at 23:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nublense have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Nublense at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Universidad de Chile (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Universidad de Chile's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Nublense against 0.50 for Universidad de Chile. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Nublense half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Universidad de Chile half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nublense 52% versus Universidad de Chile 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 48% | Universidad de Chile 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.22 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 0.855 / defence 1.093 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.867 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 1.313. Universidad de Chile bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Nublense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Nublense games / 27 Universidad de Chile games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 36% | Draw 27% | Universidad de Chile 37%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Universidad de Chile 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Universidad de Chile are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nublense 40% | Universidad de Chile 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Nov 2021, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 36% | Draw 27% | Universidad de Chile 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Nublense 1.22 / Universidad de Chile 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 0.855 / def 1.093 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.867 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.071 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Universidad de Chile xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
Nublense vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 23:30 on Thursday 4 November 2021 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Universidad de Chile?
Nublense 1 - 0 Universidad de Chile.
Where is Nublense vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Universidad de Chile part of?
Nublense vs Universidad de Chile is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 36% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Nublense and Universidad de Chile will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Universidad de Chile?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nublense and Universidad de Chile in?
Nublense (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Universidad de Chile (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nublense's attack at 0.85x the league average against Universidad de Chile's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Universidad de Chile's attack (0.87x) against Nublense's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 28/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
36%
2.79
27%
3.64
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.47
1.24
Universidad de Chile xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
11%
9.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nublense and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Nublense and 1.24 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Universidad de Chile?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nublense come into this having played 27 games, going 8W 10D 9L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Universidad de Chile sit at 1.26 PPG from 27 outings (9W 7D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Nublense against 1.26 for Universidad de Chile. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nublense's home form reads 5W 5D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Universidad de Chile have taken 1.38 points per game from 13 outings (5W 3D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Nublense are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Universidad de Chile are on 1.15 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Blended
Universidad de Chile
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Universidad de Chile in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 8W 10D 9L in their last 27 games (1.26 PPG), while Universidad de Chile have gone 9W 7D 11L in their last 27 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Universidad de Chile away?
Nublense's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.54 PPG; Universidad de Chile away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Nublense or Universidad de Chile been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Universidad de Chile in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Universidad de Chile won 5-0 on 15 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nublense have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Universidad de Chile — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Nublense
3
Draws
3
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Universidad de Chile?
From 10 meetings on record, Nublense have won 4, Universidad de Chile have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Nublense 1-0 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Universidad de Chile?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Universidad de Chile see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 46%, Universidad de Chile 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Nublense) and 62% (Universidad de Chile).
On the defensive side: Nublense keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Nublense have failed to score in 31% of games; Universidad de Chile in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Universidad de Chile?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Nublense's recent matches and 62% of Universidad de Chile's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nublense vs Universidad de Chile usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Nublense's recent games and 62% of Universidad de Chile's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nublense and Universidad de Chile tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Universidad de Chile in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nublense defy the odds to beat Universidad de Chile 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense beat Universidad de Chile 1-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 30, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.22 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.24 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Universidad de Chile landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.85 / defence 1.09 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.87 / defence 1.34, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 36% | Draw 27% | Universidad de Chile 37%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Nublense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 48%, Universidad de Chile 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.26 PPG, Universidad de Chile 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. Nublense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.