Nublense 2-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nublense at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nublense vs Everton de Vina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nublense and Everton de Vina meet at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún in Primera División, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Monday 18 April 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nublense have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Nublense's home record at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Everton de Vina's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Nublense's favour (1.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Nublense 0W, Everton de Vina 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Nublense half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nublense 53% versus Everton de Vina 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nublense 47% | Everton de Vina 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.27 xG and Everton de Vina 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 1.112 / defence 0.961 | Everton de Vina attack 1.069 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.069. Data: 41 Nublense games / 41 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 40% | Draw 28% | Everton de Vina 32%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Everton de Vina 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nublense at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Nublense 50% | Everton de Vina 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 40% | Draw 28% | Everton de Vina 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Nublense 1.27 / Everton de Vina 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 1.112 / def 0.961 | Everton de Vina attack 1.069 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Nublense (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Everton de Vina xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Nublense vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Everton de Vina?
Nublense 2 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Nublense vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Everton de Vina part of?
Nublense vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 40% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Nublense and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Everton de Vina?
Record (1 meetings): Nublense 0W | Draws 1 | Everton de Vina 0W.
What form are Nublense and Everton de Vina in?
Nublense (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nublense's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (1.07x) against Nublense's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.54
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.37
1.10
Everton de Vina xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Nublense and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Nublense and 1.10 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nublense come into this having played 32 games, going 11W 11D 10L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.22 PPG from 32 outings (10W 9D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Nublense against 1.22 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Nublense's home form reads 7W 5D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 1.06 points per game from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nublense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nublense are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 0.91 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Everton de Vina in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 11W 11D 10L in their last 32 games (1.38 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Everton de Vina away?
Nublense's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.62 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Nublense or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nublense have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Nublense
4
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Nublense have won 4, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 0-0 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Everton de Vina?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 44%, Everton de Vina 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Nublense and 25% for Everton de Vina.
On the defensive side: Nublense keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Nublense have failed to score in 31% of games; Everton de Vina in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Nublense's recent matches and 44% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nublense vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Nublense's recent games and 25% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nublense and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nublense edge out Everton de Vina 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense beat Everton de Vina 2-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.27 xG and Everton de Vina 1.10 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 1.11 / defence 0.96 against Everton de Vina attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 40% | Draw 28% | Everton de Vina 32%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 47%, Everton de Vina 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.38 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.