Nublense 3-2 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nublense at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nublense and Cobresal meet at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún in Primera División, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 July 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nublense's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nublense's home record at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cobresal have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobresal's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nublense lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nublense — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Cobresal — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nublense 56% versus Cobresal 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 48% | Cobresal 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.69 xG and Cobresal 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 1.171 / defence 1.009 | Cobresal attack 1.000 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.027. Data: 50 Nublense games / 50 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 52% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 23%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Cobresal 4.35. Nublense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nublense as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nublense 70% | Cobresal 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jul 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 52% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Nublense 1.69 / Cobresal 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 1.171 / def 1.009 | Cobresal attack 1.000 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Nublense (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Cobresal xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Cobresal kick off?
Nublense vs Cobresal kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 23 July 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Cobresal?
Nublense 3 - 2 Cobresal.
Where is Nublense vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Cobresal part of?
Nublense vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 52% chance of winning, Cobresal a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Nublense and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Cobresal?
Record (2 meetings): Nublense 0W | Draws 1 | Cobresal 1W.
What form are Nublense and Cobresal in?
Nublense (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Cobresal (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nublense's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Cobresal's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (1.00x) against Nublense's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
52%
1.92
25%
3.94
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.73
1.04
Cobresal xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
4%
24.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Nublense and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Nublense and 1.04 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nublense's recent record stands at 20W 17D 13L from 50 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cobresal, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 20L across 50 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Nublense against 1.40 for Cobresal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Nublense have managed 12W 7D 5L from 24 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cobresal's away record stands at 7W 4D 13L across 24 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nublense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nublense are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.32 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 20W 17D 13L in their last 50 games (1.54 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 20W 10D 20L in their last 50 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Cobresal away?
Nublense's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.79 PPG; Cobresal away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Nublense or Cobresal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cobresal in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Nublense have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nublense won 5-0 on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nublense have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Nublense
4
Draws
2
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, Nublense have won 4, Cobresal have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Cobresal 0-1 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Cobresal?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Cobresal see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 54%, Cobresal 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Nublense) and 54% (Cobresal).
On the defensive side: Nublense keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Cobresal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Nublense's recent matches and 54% of Cobresal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nublense vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Nublense's recent games and 54% of Cobresal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nublense and Cobresal tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nublense edge out Cobresal 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense beat Cobresal 3-2 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 19, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.69 xG and Cobresal 1.04 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Nublense beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cobresal outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 1.17 / defence 1.01 against Cobresal attack 1.00 / defence 0.96, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 52% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 23%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 48%, Cobresal 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Cobresal's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.54 PPG, Cobresal 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. Nublense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.