Nublense 1-1 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nublense at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Antofagasta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antofagasta make the trip to Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún to face Nublense in Primera División, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nublense's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Nublense's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Antofagasta have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Antofagasta away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nublense lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Antofagasta winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Nublense — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Antofagasta — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nublense 53% versus Antofagasta 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 47% | Antofagasta 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.63 xG and Antofagasta 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 1.109 / defence 0.930 | Antofagasta attack 1.088 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.176. Data: 39 Nublense games / 39 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 47% | Draw 25% | Antofagasta 27%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Antofagasta 3.70. Nublense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nublense as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Nublense 50% | Antofagasta 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 47% | Draw 25% | Antofagasta 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Nublense 1.63 / Antofagasta 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 1.109 / def 0.930 | Antofagasta attack 1.088 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Nublense (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Antofagasta xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Antofagasta kick off?
Nublense vs Antofagasta kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Antofagasta?
Nublense 1 - 1 Antofagasta.
Where is Nublense vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Antofagasta part of?
Nublense vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 47% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Nublense and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Antofagasta?
Record (2 meetings): Nublense 0W | Draws 1 | Antofagasta 1W.
What form are Nublense and Antofagasta in?
Nublense (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Antofagasta (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nublense's attack rating (1.11) and Antofagasta's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antofagasta's attack (1.09x) against Nublense's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
47%
2.11
25%
3.97
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.82
1.19
Antofagasta xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
5%
18.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Nublense and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Nublense and 1.19 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nublense's recent record stands at 11W 11D 10L from 32 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Antofagasta, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 9L across 32 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Nublense against 1.47 for Antofagasta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Nublense have managed 7W 5D 4L from 16 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antofagasta's away record stands at 3W 9D 4L across 16 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nublense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nublense are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Antofagasta are on 1.06 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Current Season
Antofagasta
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Antofagasta in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 11W 11D 10L in their last 32 games (1.38 PPG), while Antofagasta have gone 12W 11D 9L in their last 32 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Antofagasta away?
Nublense's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.62 PPG; Antofagasta away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Nublense or Antofagasta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Antofagasta in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nublense have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Antofagasta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nublense
2
Draws
2
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, Nublense have won 0, Antofagasta have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when Antofagasta 1-0 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Antofagasta?
Antofagasta have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 44%, Antofagasta 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Nublense and 25% for Antofagasta.
On the defensive side: Nublense keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Antofagasta in 31%; Nublense have failed to score in 31% of games; Antofagasta in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Antofagasta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Nublense's recent matches and 50% of Antofagasta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nublense vs Antofagasta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Nublense's recent games and 25% of Antofagasta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nublense and Antofagasta tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Antofagasta in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nublense and Antofagasta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 8, as Nublense and Antofagasta drew 1-1 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.63 xG and Antofagasta 1.19 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 1.11 / defence 0.93 against Antofagasta attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 47% | Draw 25% | Antofagasta 27%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 47%, Antofagasta 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Antofagasta's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.38 PPG, Antofagasta 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.