Huachipato 0-1 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antofagasta at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Huachipato vs Antofagasta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Antofagasta travel to Estadio CAP to take on Huachipato. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 October 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Huachipato have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Huachipato, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Huachipato at Estadio CAP this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Antofagasta — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Antofagasta have posted 0W 7D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Huachipato 1.30 PPG, Antofagasta 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Huachipato have won 0, Antofagasta 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2021, ended 0–1 with Antofagasta winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Huachipato trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Antofagasta trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Huachipato 56% and Antofagasta 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Huachipato 39% | Antofagasta 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Huachipato 1.04 xG and Antofagasta 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Huachipato attack 0.762 / defence 1.200 | Antofagasta attack 0.753 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.205. Huachipato's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Antofagasta bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Huachipato's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Huachipato games / 23 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Huachipato 33% | Draw 32% | Antofagasta 35%. Fair-value odds: Huachipato 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Antofagasta 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antofagasta as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antofagasta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Huachipato 50% | Antofagasta 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Huachipato vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio CAP • Kick-off: Friday 15 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Huachipato 33% | Draw 32% | Antofagasta 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Huachipato 1.04 / Antofagasta 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Huachipato attack 0.762 / def 1.200 | Antofagasta attack 0.753 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Antofagasta (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Huachipato xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Antofagasta xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Huachipato vs Antofagasta kick off?
Huachipato vs Antofagasta kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 15 October 2021 at Estadio CAP.
What was the final score in Huachipato vs Antofagasta?
Huachipato 0 - 1 Antofagasta.
Where is Huachipato vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio CAP.
What competition is Huachipato vs Antofagasta part of?
Huachipato vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Huachipato vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives Huachipato a 33% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Antofagasta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Huachipato vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Huachipato and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will Huachipato vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Antofagasta?
Record (1 meetings): Huachipato 0W | Draws 0 | Antofagasta 1W.
What form are Huachipato and Antofagasta in?
Huachipato (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Antofagasta (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Huachipato's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Antofagasta's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Antofagasta's attack versus Huachipato's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antofagasta Win
33%
3.06
32%
3.14
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Huachipato xG
Total xG
2.12
1.09
Antofagasta xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.08
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Huachipato vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Huachipato and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Huachipato and 1.09 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Huachipato vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Huachipato have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 11D 8L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Huachipato is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antofagasta's form line: 8W 8D 7L from 23 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Huachipato on 1.00 PPG, Antofagasta on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Huachipato have posted 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (2W 6D 3L).
On the road, Antofagasta have gone 1W 7D 3L from 11 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antofagasta's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Huachipato are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Antofagasta are on 1.22 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antofagasta in 70%.
Last 23 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Huachipato
Blended
Antofagasta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Huachipato and Antofagasta in coming into this match?
Huachipato have gone 4W 11D 8L in their last 23 games (1.00 PPG), while Antofagasta have gone 8W 8D 7L in their last 23 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Huachipato at home or Antofagasta away?
Huachipato's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Huachipato at home: 1.09 PPG; Antofagasta away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Huachipato's record when hosting Antofagasta specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Huachipato
1
Draws
2
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, Huachipato have won 1, Antofagasta have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Huachipato and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2022, when Huachipato 1-0 Antofagasta.
Who has won more matches between Huachipato and Antofagasta?
Antofagasta have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Huachipato see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Huachipato 46%, Antofagasta 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Huachipato and 27% for Antofagasta.
On the defensive side: Huachipato keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Huachipato have failed to score in 54% of games; Antofagasta in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Huachipato home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Huachipato play Antofagasta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Huachipato's games and 73% of Antofagasta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Huachipato vs Antofagasta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Huachipato's recent games and 27% of Antofagasta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Huachipato and Antofagasta tend to score early?
Huachipato have had a goal before half-time in 36% of their recent matches, Antofagasta in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antofagasta edge out Huachipato 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antofagasta beat Huachipato 0-1 at Estadio CAP, Regular Season - 26, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 1.04 xG and Antofagasta 1.09 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Huachipato fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 0.76 / defence 1.20 against Antofagasta attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Huachipato 33% | Draw 32% | Antofagasta 35%, with Antofagasta to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huachipato 39%, Antofagasta 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Huachipato's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antofagasta's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Huachipato 1.00 PPG, Antofagasta 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antofagasta win broke the near-deadlock. Huachipato (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Antofagasta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.