Everton de Vina 1-0 Santiago Wanderers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Santiago Wanderers at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Santiago Wanderers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Everton de Vina and Santiago Wanderers meet at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 May 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 0.93 xG and Santiago Wanderers 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.714 / defence 1.530 | Santiago Wanderers attack 0.743 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.084. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Santiago Wanderers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing Everton de Vina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Everton de Vina games / 7 Santiago Wanderers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 27% | Draw 32% | Santiago Wanderers 42%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Santiago Wanderers 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santiago Wanderers at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Santiago Wanderers if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Santiago Wanderers | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 27% | Draw 32% | Santiago Wanderers 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Everton de Vina 0.93 / Santiago Wanderers 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.714 / def 1.530 | Santiago Wanderers attack 0.743 / def 1.347 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Santiago Wanderers (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Santiago Wanderers xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Santiago Wanderers kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Santiago Wanderers kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Santiago Wanderers?
Everton de Vina 1 - 0 Santiago Wanderers.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Santiago Wanderers being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Santiago Wanderers part of?
Everton de Vina vs Santiago Wanderers is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Santiago Wanderers?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 27% chance of winning, Santiago Wanderers a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Santiago Wanderers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Santiago Wanderers?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Everton de Vina and Santiago Wanderers will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Santiago Wanderers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Santiago Wanderers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton de Vina and Santiago Wanderers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Everton de Vina's attack at 0.71x the league average against Santiago Wanderers's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Santiago Wanderers's attack (0.74x) against Everton de Vina's defence (1.53x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santiago Wanderers Win
27%
3.77
32%
3.14
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.17
1.23
Santiago Wanderers xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
8%
12.91
16%
6.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 14.1 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Santiago Wanderers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Santiago Wanderers expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.23 for Santiago Wanderers, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Santiago Wanderers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Pre-Season
Santiago Wanderers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Everton de Vina
0
Draws
1
Santiago Wanderers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Santiago Wanderers?
From 2 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 1, Santiago Wanderers have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Santiago Wanderers last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2021, when Santiago Wanderers 2-1 Everton de Vina.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Santiago Wanderers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Everton de Vina defy the odds to beat Santiago Wanderers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Santiago Wanderers 1-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 0.93 xG and Santiago Wanderers 1.23 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Santiago Wanderers landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.71 / defence 1.53 against Santiago Wanderers attack 0.74 / defence 1.35, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 27% | Draw 32% | Santiago Wanderers 42%, with Santiago Wanderers to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Everton de Vina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.