Everton de Vina 1-2 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 10 as Everton de Vina welcome Coquimbo Unido to Estadio Sausalito. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Everton de Vina's home record at Estadio Sausalito: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primera División appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Coquimbo Unido's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton de Vina at 1.40 PPG versus Coquimbo Unido's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Everton de Vina hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Coquimbo Unido, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2023, ended 2–0 with Everton de Vina winning.
The historical record gives Everton de Vina a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Everton de Vina trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 55% versus Coquimbo Unido 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 42% | Coquimbo Unido 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.35 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 1.066 / defence 0.844 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.883 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.250. Data: 39 Everton de Vina games / 39 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 26%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Coquimbo Unido 3.85. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton de Vina as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Everton de Vina 80% | Coquimbo Unido 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Everton de Vina 1.35 / Coquimbo Unido 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 1.066 / def 0.844 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.883 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Coquimbo Unido xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Everton de Vina 1 - 2 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 46% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (4 meetings): Everton de Vina 3W | Draws 1 | Coquimbo Unido 0W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (1.07) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
46%
2.15
28%
3.61
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.28
0.93
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
7%
14.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.93 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 22W 21D 17L from 60 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Coquimbo Unido, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 27L across 60 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.45 PPG, Coquimbo Unido on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 11W 11D 8L from 30 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Coquimbo Unido's away record stands at 8W 6D 16L across 30 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.28 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 22W 21D 17L in their last 60 games (1.45 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 22W 11D 27L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.47 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Everton de Vina
4
Draws
2
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 53%, Coquimbo Unido 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Everton de Vina) and 53% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Everton de Vina's games and 60% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Coquimbo Unido defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Everton de Vina 1-2 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.35 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.93 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 1.07 / defence 0.84 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 26%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Coquimbo Unido win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 42%, Coquimbo Unido 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.45 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.