Deportes Iquique 2-1 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Deportes Iquique at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Copiapo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Deportes Copiapo make the trip to Estadio Tierra de Campeones to face Deportes Iquique in Primera División, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at 01:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Deportes Iquique have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Iquique, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Iquique's home record at Estadio Tierra de Campeones: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Deportes Iquique are significantly better at Estadio Tierra de Campeones than their overall form suggests.
Deportes Copiapo's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Copiapo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Deportes Copiapo have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Deportes Iquique, 1.30 for Deportes Copiapo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Deportes Iquique lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 0–3 with Deportes Copiapo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Deportes Iquique goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Deportes Copiapo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Iquique 81% versus Deportes Copiapo 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Deportes Iquique 81% | Deportes Copiapo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 1.69 xG and Deportes Copiapo 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 0.933 / defence 1.303 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.911 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.210. Deportes Copiapo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Deportes Iquique's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Deportes Iquique games / 51 Deportes Copiapo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 44% | Draw 24% | Deportes Copiapo 33%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Deportes Copiapo 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Deportes Iquique as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deportes Iquique if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Deportes Iquique 80% | Deportes Copiapo 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Aug 2024, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 44% | Draw 24% | Deportes Copiapo 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Deportes Iquique 1.69 / Deportes Copiapo 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 0.933 / def 1.303 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.911 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Deportes Iquique (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Deportes Copiapo xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 01:30 on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Copiapo?
Deportes Iquique 2 - 1 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Copiapo is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 44% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Deportes Iquique the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Deportes Iquique and Deportes Copiapo will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Deportes Copiapo?
Record (1 meetings): Deportes Iquique 0W | Draws 0 | Deportes Copiapo 1W.
What form are Deportes Iquique and Deportes Copiapo in?
Deportes Iquique (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Deportes Iquique's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Deportes Copiapo's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Deportes Copiapo's attack (0.91x) against Deportes Iquique's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Iquique Win
44%
2.30
24%
4.19
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
3.12
1.44
Deportes Copiapo xG
2.30
44%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
10%
9.66
6%
16.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.44 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Copiapo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Deportes Iquique come into this having played 21 games, going 9W 5D 7L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Deportes Iquique is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deportes Copiapo sit at 0.90 PPG from 21 outings (6W 1D 14L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Deportes Copiapo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deportes Iquique carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Deportes Copiapo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Deportes Iquique's home form reads 5W 2D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Deportes Copiapo have taken 0.40 points per game from 10 outings (1W 1D 8L). That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deportes Copiapo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportes Iquique come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Deportes Iquique are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Deportes Copiapo are on 1.24 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportes Iquique have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Blended
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Iquique and Deportes Copiapo in coming into this match?
Deportes Iquique have gone 9W 5D 7L in their last 21 games (1.52 PPG), while Deportes Copiapo have gone 6W 1D 14L in their last 21 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Iquique at home or Deportes Copiapo away?
Deportes Iquique's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Iquique at home: 1.70 PPG; Deportes Copiapo away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Deportes Iquique
0
Draws
1
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Deportes Copiapo?
From 2 meetings on record, Deportes Iquique have won 1, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2024, when Deportes Iquique 2-1 Deportes Copiapo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Iquique 80%, Deportes Copiapo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Deportes Iquique and 50% for Deportes Copiapo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Deportes Copiapo in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Iquique play Deportes Copiapo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Deportes Iquique's games and 40% of Deportes Copiapo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Copiapo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Deportes Iquique's matches and 50% of Deportes Copiapo's.
Do Deportes Iquique and Deportes Copiapo tend to score early?
Deportes Iquique have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Deportes Copiapo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Deportes Iquique edge out Deportes Copiapo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Iquique beat Deportes Copiapo 2-1 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.69 xG and Deportes Copiapo 1.44 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.93 / defence 1.30 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.91 / defence 1.23, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 44% | Draw 24% | Deportes Copiapo 33%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 81%, Deportes Copiapo 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Deportes Iquique arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.