Curico Unido 1-1 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Curico Unido vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Curico Unido and Union La Calera meet at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja in Primera División, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 26 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Curico Unido have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Curico Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Curico Unido's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union La Calera's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union La Calera away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Curico Unido, 1 for Union La Calera and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with Union La Calera winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Curico Unido half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Union La Calera half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Curico Unido 56% versus Union La Calera 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Curico Unido 40% | Union La Calera 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Curico Unido 1.14 xG and Union La Calera 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Curico Unido attack 0.975 / defence 1.130 | Union La Calera attack 1.065 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.277. Data: 25 Curico Unido games / 25 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Curico Unido 28% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 46%. Fair-value odds: Curico Unido 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Union La Calera 2.17. Union La Calera hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union La Calera at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union La Calera if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Curico Unido 70% | Union La Calera 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Curico Unido vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario La Granja • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Curico Unido 28% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Curico Unido 1.14 / Union La Calera 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Curico Unido attack 0.975 / def 1.130 | Union La Calera attack 1.065 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Curico Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Union La Calera xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Curico Unido vs Union La Calera kick off?
Curico Unido vs Union La Calera kicked off at 01:00 on Tuesday 26 October 2021 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What was the final score in Curico Unido vs Union La Calera?
Curico Unido 1 - 1 Union La Calera.
Where is Curico Unido vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What competition is Curico Unido vs Union La Calera part of?
Curico Unido vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Curico Unido vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Curico Unido a 28% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Curico Unido vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Curico Unido and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Curico Unido vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Union La Calera?
Record (1 meetings): Curico Unido 0W | Draws 0 | Union La Calera 1W.
What form are Curico Unido and Union La Calera in?
Curico Unido (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Curico Unido's attack rating (0.97) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union La Calera's attack (1.06x) against Curico Unido's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
28%
3.58
26%
3.87
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Curico Unido xG
Total xG
2.68
1.54
Union La Calera xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
6%
16.65
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Curico Unido vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Curico Unido and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Curico Unido and 1.54 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Curico Unido vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, Curico Unido have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 6W 9D 10L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Curico Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union La Calera's form line: 13W 5D 7L from 25 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Union La Calera are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Curico Unido.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Curico Unido have posted 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (4W 5D 3L).
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 6W 3D 3L from 12 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Curico Unido are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.24 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Union La Calera in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Curico Unido
Blended
Union La Calera
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Curico Unido and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Curico Unido have gone 6W 9D 10L in their last 25 games (1.08 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 13W 5D 7L in their last 25 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Curico Unido at home or Union La Calera away?
Union La Calera's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Curico Unido at home: 1.42 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Curico Unido or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Curico Unido have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Union La Calera have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union La Calera won 0-3 on 30 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Curico Unido have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Union La Calera — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Curico Unido
2
Draws
3
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Union La Calera?
From 6 meetings on record, Curico Unido have won 1, Union La Calera have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Curico Unido and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2023, when Curico Unido 0-3 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Curico Unido and Union La Calera?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Curico Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Curico Unido 67%, Union La Calera 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Curico Unido) and 58% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Curico Unido keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Union La Calera in 33%; Union La Calera in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Curico Unido home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Curico Unido play Union La Calera?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Curico Unido's games and 50% of Union La Calera's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Curico Unido vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Curico Unido's recent games and 58% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Curico Unido and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Curico Unido have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Curico Unido and Union La Calera share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja, Regular Season - 28, as Curico Unido and Union La Calera drew 1-1 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Curico Unido 1.14 xG and Union La Calera 1.54 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Curico Unido attack 0.97 / defence 1.13 against Union La Calera attack 1.06 / defence 1.12, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Curico Unido 28% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 46%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Curico Unido 40%, Union La Calera 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Curico Unido's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Union La Calera's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union La Calera arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.