Curico Unido 1-2 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Curico Unido vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Union Espanola travel to Estadio Bicentenario La Granja to take on Curico Unido. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 May 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Curico Unido 1.22 xG and Union Espanola 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Curico Unido attack 1.123 / defence 1.117 | Union Espanola attack 1.018 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 0.921 / away 1.091. Data: 8 Curico Unido games / 8 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Curico Unido 34% | Draw 31% | Union Espanola 35%. Fair-value odds: Curico Unido 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Union Espanola 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Espanola at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Espanola offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Curico Unido vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario La Granja • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Curico Unido 34% | Draw 31% | Union Espanola 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Curico Unido 1.22 / Union Espanola 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Curico Unido attack 1.123 / def 1.117 | Union Espanola attack 1.018 / def 1.179 | league avg home 0.921 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Curico Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Union Espanola xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Curico Unido vs Union Espanola kick off?
Curico Unido vs Union Espanola kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 29 May 2021 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What was the final score in Curico Unido vs Union Espanola?
Curico Unido 1 - 2 Union Espanola.
Where is Curico Unido vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What competition is Curico Unido vs Union Espanola part of?
Curico Unido vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Curico Unido vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Curico Unido a 34% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Curico Unido vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Curico Unido and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Curico Unido vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Union Espanola?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Curico Unido and Union Espanola in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Curico Unido's attack at 1.12x the league average against Union Espanola's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Espanola's attack versus Curico Unido's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
34%
2.95
31%
3.20
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Curico Unido xG
Total xG
2.46
1.24
Union Espanola xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
10%
9.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Curico Unido vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Curico Unido and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Curico Unido and 1.24 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Curico Unido vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Curico Unido
Pre-Season
Union Espanola
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Curico Unido and Union Espanola runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Curico Unido's record when hosting Union Espanola specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Curico Unido
1
Draws
4
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Union Espanola?
From 6 meetings on record, Curico Unido have won 1, Union Espanola have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Curico Unido and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2023, when Union Espanola 2-2 Curico Unido.
Who has won more matches between Curico Unido and Union Espanola?
Union Espanola have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Curico Unido home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Union Espanola edge out Curico Unido 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Curico Unido 1-2 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Curico Unido 1.22 xG and Union Espanola 1.24 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Curico Unido attack 1.12 / defence 1.12 against Union Espanola attack 1.02 / defence 1.18, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Curico Unido 34% | Draw 31% | Union Espanola 35%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.