Coquimbo Unido 1-0 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Coquimbo Unido welcome Nublense to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 20 July 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Coquimbo Unido have gone 8W 2D 0L — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Coquimbo Unido's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Nublense — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Nublense have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Coquimbo Unido have won 1, Nublense 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Feb 2024, ended Coquimbo Unido 0–0 Nublense — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Nublense in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coquimbo Unido 64% and Nublense 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 56% | Nublense 51%). Note also that Nublense surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Coquimbo Unido recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.72 xG and Nublense 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.063 / defence 0.689 | Nublense attack 0.933 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.404. Coquimbo Unido have a tight defence (rating 0.689), which is pulling Nublense's projected output down. Data: built from Coquimbo Unido's last 45 games and Nublense's last 45.
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 57% | Draw 24% | Nublense 20%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.76 | Draw 4.22 | Nublense 5.12. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Coquimbo Unido 50% (last 10 home games) | Nublense 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, matchday 16 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 20 July 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 57% | Draw 24% | Nublense 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.72 / Nublense 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.063 / def 0.689 | Nublense attack 0.933 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Nublense xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense FAQs
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Coquimbo Unido 1 - 0 Nublense.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense is a Primera División fixture (matchday 16) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 57% chance of winning, Nublense a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Nublense will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coquimbo Unido's attack at 1.06x the league average against Nublense's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nublense's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Coquimbo Unido's last 45 games and Nublense's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.22
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.63
0.90
Nublense xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
3%
28.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.3 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.90 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 45 games, going 24W 9D 12L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Nublense sit at 1.20 PPG from 45 outings (14W 12D 19L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Nublense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 14W 4D 4L across their last 22 home games, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Nublense have taken 1.09 points per game from their last 22 away games (6W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.31 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Nublense
Blended
Coquimbo Unido (Home) vs Nublense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Nublense
Blended
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense Form FAQs
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Nublense in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 24W 9D 12L in their last 45 games (1.80 PPG), while Nublense have gone 14W 12D 19L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Nublense away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 2.09 PPG; Nublense away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Nublense specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Coquimbo Unido
3
Draws
4
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Nublense?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Coquimbo Unido have won 3, Nublense have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Nublense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Nublense 2-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Nublense?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 64%, Nublense 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Coquimbo Unido) and 50% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Coquimbo Unido and Nublense matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 64% of Nublense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Coquimbo Unido and Nublense matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 50% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Nublense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Coquimbo Unido's recent matches and 64% of Nublense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Nublense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Nublense 1-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.72 xG and Nublense 0.90 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nublense landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.06 / defence 0.69 against Nublense attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 57% | Draw 24% | Nublense 20%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 56%, Nublense 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Nublense's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.