Coquimbo Unido 3-1 Huachipato – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 49%, yet in-form Huachipato provide a compelling counter-argument — this Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso plays host to Coquimbo Unido versus Huachipato in Primera División, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Coquimbo Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Coquimbo Unido at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Huachipato (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Huachipato have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Huachipato are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Huachipato in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Coquimbo Unido lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Coquimbo Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Huachipato goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 63% versus Huachipato 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 55% | Huachipato 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.29 xG and Huachipato 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.002 / defence 0.776 | Huachipato attack 0.750 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.285. Coquimbo Unido's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Coquimbo Unido games / 40 Huachipato games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 49% | Draw 29% | Huachipato 22%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Huachipato 4.55. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Huachipato (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. This conflicts with form data: Coquimbo Unido 60% | Huachipato 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 49% | Draw 29% | Huachipato 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.29 / Huachipato 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.002 / def 0.776 | Huachipato attack 0.750 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Huachipato xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato?
Coquimbo Unido 3 - 1 Huachipato.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 49% chance of winning, Huachipato a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato?
Record (4 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 1W | Draws 1 | Huachipato 2W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Huachipato (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Coquimbo Unido's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Huachipato's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Huachipato's attack (0.75x) against Coquimbo Unido's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
49%
2.02
29%
3.45
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.04
0.75
Huachipato xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
6%
16.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 9.7 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.6 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.75 for Huachipato, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 11D 27L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Huachipato sit at 1.53 PPG from 60 outings (27W 11D 22L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Coquimbo Unido against 1.53 for Huachipato. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 14W 5D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Huachipato have taken 1.37 points per game from 30 outings (12W 5D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Huachipato are on 1.33 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
Huachipato
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 22W 11D 27L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while Huachipato have gone 27W 11D 22L in their last 60 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Huachipato away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.57 PPG; Huachipato away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Huachipato been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Huachipato in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Coquimbo Unido go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coquimbo Unido have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Huachipato — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Coquimbo Unido
2
Draws
3
Huachipato
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, Huachipato have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Huachipato 1-3 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Huachipato are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 67%, Huachipato 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Coquimbo Unido) and 40% (Huachipato).
On the defensive side: Huachipato in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Huachipato away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Huachipato?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 47% of Huachipato's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 40% of Huachipato's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Huachipato in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Huachipato.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Huachipato 3-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.29 xG and Huachipato 0.75 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.00 / defence 0.78 against Huachipato attack 0.75 / defence 0.89, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 49% | Draw 29% | Huachipato 22%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 55%, Huachipato 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Huachipato's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 1.28 PPG, Huachipato 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm. Huachipato (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.