Coquimbo Unido 0-0 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colo Colo at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Colo Colo travel to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to take on Coquimbo Unido. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 March 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Coquimbo Unido's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Colo Colo — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Colo Colo have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Coquimbo Unido at 1.70 PPG versus Colo Colo's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 2 for Colo Colo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Coquimbo Unido in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Colo Colo in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 63% versus Colo Colo 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 55% | Colo Colo 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.22 xG and Colo Colo 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.179 / defence 1.002 | Colo Colo attack 1.026 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.325. Colo Colo's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Coquimbo Unido games / 34 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 33% | Draw 26% | Colo Colo 40%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Colo Colo 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Colo Colo as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colo Colo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 60% | Colo Colo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 33% | Draw 26% | Colo Colo 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.22 / Colo Colo 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.179 / def 1.002 | Colo Colo attack 1.026 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Colo Colo xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo?
Coquimbo Unido 0 - 0 Colo Colo.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 33% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo?
Record (4 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 1W | Draws 1 | Colo Colo 2W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Colo Colo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Coquimbo Unido's attack rating (1.18) and Colo Colo's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Colo Colo's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
33%
3.00
26%
3.78
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.58
1.36
Colo Colo xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
9%
11.70
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.36 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Coquimbo Unido have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 22W 11D 27L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Colo Colo's form line: 33W 18D 9L from 60 games, 1.95 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Colo Colo are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coquimbo Unido.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Coquimbo Unido have posted 1.57 PPG from 30 outings (14W 5D 11L).
On the road, Colo Colo have gone 13W 11D 6L from 30 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.65 scored and 0.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Colo Colo in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
Colo Colo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 22W 11D 27L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 33W 18D 9L in their last 60 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Colo Colo away?
Colo Colo's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.57 PPG; Colo Colo away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when Colo Colo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Colo Colo specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Coquimbo Unido
2
Draws
5
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, Colo Colo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Colo Colo 3-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 67%, Colo Colo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Coquimbo Unido) and 40% (Colo Colo).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Colo Colo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 60% of Colo Colo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 40% of Colo Colo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Coquimbo Unido's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.22 xG and Colo Colo 1.36 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Colo Colo landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.18 / defence 1.00 against Colo Colo attack 1.03 / defence 0.77, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 33% | Draw 26% | Colo Colo 40%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 55%, Colo Colo 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Colo Colo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Colo Colo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.