Colo Colo 1-0 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Colo Colo (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Colo Colo face Union La Calera.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Colo Colo host Union La Calera at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Primera División, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 23:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Colo Colo have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Colo Colo have posted 6W 2D 2L at Estadio Monumental David Arellano — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union La Calera — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Union La Calera's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Colo Colo have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Colo Colo hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 1 for Union La Calera, with 1 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 4–1 with Colo Colo winning.
The historical record gives Colo Colo a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Colo Colo in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Union La Calera in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 47% versus Union La Calera 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 52% | Union La Calera 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.80 xG and Union La Calera 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 1.189 / defence 0.972 | Union La Calera attack 0.960 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 0.981. Data: 32 Colo Colo games / 32 Union La Calera games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 58% | Draw 23% | Union La Calera 19%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Union La Calera 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Colo Colo (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Colo Colo at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Colo Colo 70% | Union La Calera 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 58% | Draw 23% | Union La Calera 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Colo Colo 1.80 / Union La Calera 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 1.189 / def 0.972 | Union La Calera attack 0.960 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.521 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Union La Calera xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Union La Calera kick off?
Colo Colo vs Union La Calera kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Union La Calera?
Colo Colo 1 - 0 Union La Calera.
Where is Colo Colo vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Union La Calera part of?
Colo Colo vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 58% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Colo Colo and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Union La Calera?
Record (8 meetings): Colo Colo 6W | Draws 1 | Union La Calera 1W.
What form are Colo Colo and Union La Calera in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Union La Calera (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Colo Colo's attack rating (1.19) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Colo Colo's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.37
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
2.72
0.92
Union La Calera xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
3%
32.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.92 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Union La Calera?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Colo Colo have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 33W 12D 15L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Union La Calera's form line: 17W 12D 31L from 60 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Colo Colo are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union La Calera.
Venue Form
On home soil, Colo Colo have posted 2.13 PPG from 30 outings (20W 4D 6L).
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 6W 7D 17L from 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Colo Colo are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 0.95 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Current Season
Union La Calera
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colo Colo and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 33W 12D 15L in their last 60 games (1.85 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 17W 12D 31L in their last 60 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Union La Calera away?
Colo Colo's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 2.13 PPG; Union La Calera away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Colo Colo go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2022, when Colo Colo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Colo Colo's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Colo Colo
1
Draws
1
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 8, Union La Calera have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Union La Calera 1-2 Colo Colo.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Union La Calera?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Union La Calera see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 50%, Union La Calera 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Colo Colo) and 23% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Union La Calera in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colo Colo play Union La Calera?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 37% of Union La Calera's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colo Colo vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Colo Colo's recent games and 23% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colo Colo and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Colo Colo have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Colo Colo edge out Union La Calera 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Union La Calera 1-0 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.80 xG and Union La Calera 0.92 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Colo Colo fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Union La Calera landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.19 / defence 0.97 against Union La Calera attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 58% | Draw 23% | Union La Calera 19%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 52%, Union La Calera 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Colo Colo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.