Colo Colo 1-0 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colo Colo at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Colo Colo vs Nublense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Colo Colo and Nublense meet at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Primera División, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Monday 13 February 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Colo Colo (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Colo Colo have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.10 conceded per game. 9 clean sheets from 10 home games (90%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Monumental David Arellano. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nublense's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Nublense have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Colo Colo. A 0.50 PPG lead over Nublense (2.10 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Colo Colo lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Colo Colo — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Nublense — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 42% versus Nublense 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 39% | Nublense 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.35 xG and Nublense 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 1.037 / defence 0.828 | Nublense attack 0.984 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.189. Data: 32 Colo Colo games / 32 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 46% | Draw 28% | Nublense 27%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Nublense 3.70. Colo Colo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Colo Colo as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Colo Colo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Colo Colo 10% | Nublense 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Monday 13 Feb 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 46% | Draw 28% | Nublense 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Colo Colo 1.35 / Nublense 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 1.037 / def 0.828 | Nublense attack 0.984 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Nublense xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Nublense kick off?
Colo Colo vs Nublense kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 13 February 2023 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Nublense?
Colo Colo 1 - 0 Nublense.
Where is Colo Colo vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Nublense part of?
Colo Colo vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 46% chance of winning, Nublense a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Colo Colo and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Nublense?
Record (3 meetings): Colo Colo 0W | Draws 2 | Nublense 1W.
What form are Colo Colo and Nublense in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Nublense (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Colo Colo's attack at 1.04x the league average against Nublense's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nublense's attack (0.98x) against Colo Colo's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.63
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
2.32
0.97
Nublense xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
7%
14.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.97 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Colo Colo come into this having played 62 games, going 37W 14D 11L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Nublense sit at 1.55 PPG from 62 outings (25W 21D 16L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Colo Colo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Nublense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Colo Colo's home form reads 20W 6D 5L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Nublense have taken 1.26 points per game from 31 outings (9W 12D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Colo Colo are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.53 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Current Season
Nublense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colo Colo and Nublense in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 37W 14D 11L in their last 62 games (2.02 PPG), while Nublense have gone 25W 21D 16L in their last 62 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Nublense away?
Colo Colo's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 2.13 PPG; Nublense away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Nublense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Nublense in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Colo Colo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 6-2 on 17 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colo Colo have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Nublense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Colo Colo
4
Draws
2
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Nublense?
From 10 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 4, Nublense have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Colo Colo 6-2 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Nublense?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Colo Colo see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 26%, Nublense 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Colo Colo) and 45% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Nublense in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colo Colo play Nublense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 58% of Nublense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colo Colo vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Colo Colo's recent games and 45% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colo Colo and Nublense tend to score early?
Colo Colo have had a goal before half-time in 45% of their recent matches, Nublense in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Colo Colo edge out Nublense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Nublense 1-0 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.35 xG and Nublense 0.97 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nublense landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.04 / defence 0.83 against Nublense attack 0.98 / defence 0.82, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 46% | Draw 28% | Nublense 27%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 39%, Nublense 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nublense's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.55. That form edge translated into the three points. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.