Cobresal 3-3 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Cobre plays host to Cobresal versus Universidad de Chile in Primera División, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cobresal's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobresal's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Estadio El Cobre this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Universidad de Chile (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Universidad de Chile have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Universidad de Chile arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cobresal register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Universidad de Chile in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, Cobresal are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 3 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Cobresal and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Cobresal — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Universidad de Chile — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cobresal 64% and Universidad de Chile 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 67% | Universidad de Chile 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.41 xG and Universidad de Chile 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.179 / defence 1.191 | Universidad de Chile attack 1.316 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.384. Universidad de Chile have an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — the away xG of 2.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Cobresal games / 45 Universidad de Chile games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 25% | Draw 21% | Universidad de Chile 55%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 4.00 | Draw 4.76 | Universidad de Chile 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Universidad de Chile (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 2.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Cobresal dominate the H2H record, yet Universidad de Chile are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Universidad de Chile at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 80% | Universidad de Chile 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 25% | Draw 21% | Universidad de Chile 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Cobresal 1.41 / Universidad de Chile 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.179 / def 1.191 | Universidad de Chile attack 1.316 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Universidad de Chile xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile?
Cobresal 3 - 3 Universidad de Chile.
Where is Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile part of?
Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 25% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 55% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Cobresal and Universidad de Chile will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Universidad de Chile?
Record (6 meetings): Cobresal 3W | Draws 3 | Universidad de Chile 0W.
What form are Cobresal and Universidad de Chile in?
Cobresal (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Universidad de Chile (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cobresal's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Universidad de Chile's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Universidad de Chile's attack (1.32x) against Cobresal's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 2.17.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 1-3 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
25%
4.06
21%
4.87
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
1 – 3
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Cobresal xG
Total xG
3.58
2.17
Universidad de Chile xG
4.06
25%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
11%
8.75
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
3%
35.51
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Cobresal and 2.17 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cobresal's recent record stands at 18W 14D 13L from 45 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Universidad de Chile, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 13L across 45 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Cobresal against 1.60 for Universidad de Chile. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cobresal have managed 13W 6D 4L from 23 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Universidad de Chile's away record stands at 13W 3D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cobresal are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Universidad de Chile are on 1.49 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cobresal have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Universidad de Chile in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
Universidad de Chile
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Universidad de Chile in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 18W 14D 13L in their last 45 games (1.51 PPG), while Universidad de Chile have gone 20W 12D 13L in their last 45 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Universidad de Chile away?
Cobresal's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.96 PPG; Universidad de Chile away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Cobresal go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Universidad de Chile — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cobresal
4
Draws
0
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Universidad de Chile?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 6, Universidad de Chile have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Cobresal 1-0 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Universidad de Chile?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Universidad de Chile are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Cobresal, 70% for Universidad de Chile — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Cobresal and 74% for Universidad de Chile. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Universidad de Chile?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Cobresal's games and 70% of Universidad de Chile's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Cobresal's matches and 74% of Universidad de Chile's.
Do Cobresal and Universidad de Chile tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Universidad de Chile in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cobresal and Universidad de Chile share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal and Universidad de Chile finished level at 3-3 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.41 xG and Universidad de Chile 2.17 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Cobresal beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Universidad de Chile outscored their 2.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.18 / defence 1.19 against Universidad de Chile attack 1.32 / defence 0.82, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 25% | Draw 21% | Universidad de Chile 55%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 67%, Universidad de Chile 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.51 PPG, Universidad de Chile 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.