Cobresal 1-1 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nublense at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cobresal vs Nublense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nublense make the trip to Estadio El Cobre to face Cobresal in Primera División, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 21:00 UTC.
Form
Cobresal (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Cobresal's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Estadio El Cobre this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
Nublense's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Nublense's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Nublense are 0.70 PPG clear of Cobresal in recent Primera División fixtures (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cobresal register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Nublense in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cobresal 1W, Nublense 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2021, ended 4–1 with Cobresal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cobresal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Nublense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 59% versus Nublense 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 53% | Nublense 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.43 xG and Nublense 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.092 / defence 1.196 | Nublense attack 1.170 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.208. Data: 35 Cobresal games / 35 Nublense games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cobresal 30% | Draw 29% | Nublense 41%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Nublense 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nublense at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 70% | Nublense 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 30% | Draw 29% | Nublense 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Cobresal 1.43 / Nublense 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.092 / def 1.196 | Nublense attack 1.170 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Nublense (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Nublense xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Nublense kick off?
Cobresal vs Nublense kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Nublense?
Cobresal 1 - 1 Nublense.
Where is Cobresal vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Nublense part of?
Cobresal vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 30% chance of winning, Nublense a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Cobresal and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Nublense?
Record (1 meetings): Cobresal 1W | Draws 0 | Nublense 0W.
What form are Cobresal and Nublense in?
Cobresal (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Nublense (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cobresal's attack rating (1.09) and Nublense's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nublense's attack (1.17x) against Cobresal's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
30%
3.33
29%
3.50
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cobresal xG
Total xG
3.12
1.69
Nublense xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
6%
18.06
10%
10.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.69 for Nublense, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cobresal come into this having played 32 games, going 11W 7D 14L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, Nublense sit at 1.38 PPG from 32 outings (11W 11D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Cobresal against 1.38 for Nublense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cobresal's home form reads 7W 4D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Nublense have taken 1.12 points per game from 16 outings (4W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cobresal are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.53 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Current Season
Nublense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Nublense in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 11W 7D 14L in their last 32 games (1.25 PPG), while Nublense have gone 11W 11D 10L in their last 32 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Nublense away?
Cobresal's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.56 PPG; Nublense away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Cobresal or Nublense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Nublense in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Nublense have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nublense won 5-0 on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Nublense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Cobresal
4
Draws
4
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Nublense?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 2, Nublense have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Cobresal 0-1 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Nublense?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 62%, Nublense 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cobresal) and 50% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Nublense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Cobresal's games and 62% of Nublense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cobresal's recent games and 50% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Nublense tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Nublense in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cobresal and Nublense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal and Nublense finished level at 1-1 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.43 xG and Nublense 1.69 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.09 / defence 1.20 against Nublense attack 1.17 / defence 0.93, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 30% | Draw 29% | Nublense 41%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 53%, Nublense 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Nublense's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.25 PPG, Nublense 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.