Union La Calera 4-0 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union La Calera at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union La Calera vs Union Espanola encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Union La Calera welcome Union Espanola to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in Primera División (matchday 28). Kick-off is Friday 24 November 2023 at 23:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Union La Calera have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union La Calera at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union Espanola — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union Espanola away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Union La Calera carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Union La Calera have won 2, Union Espanola 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 May 2023, ended Union La Calera 2–3 Union Espanola — a Union Espanola win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Union La Calera in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Union Espanola in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 61% versus Union Espanola 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 47% | Union Espanola 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.68 xG and Union Espanola 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 1.026 / defence 1.184 | Union Espanola attack 0.865 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.364. Data: built from Union La Calera's last 57 games and Union Espanola's last 57.
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 44% | Draw 24% | Union Espanola 32%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 2.26 | Draw 4.21 | Union Espanola 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.68 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union La Calera are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union La Calera offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union La Calera 70% (last 10 home games) | Union Espanola 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, matchday 28 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Friday 24 November 2023 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 44% | Draw 24% | Union Espanola 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Union La Calera 1.68 / Union Espanola 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 1.026 / def 1.184 | Union Espanola attack 0.865 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Union Espanola xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union La Calera vs Union Espanola FAQs
What time does Union La Calera vs Union Espanola kick off?
Union La Calera vs Union Espanola kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Friday 24 November 2023 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Union Espanola?
Union La Calera 4 - 0 Union Espanola.
Where is Union La Calera vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Union Espanola part of?
Union La Calera vs Union Espanola is a Primera División fixture (matchday 28) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 44% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Union La Calera and Union Espanola will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union La Calera vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Union La Calera's attack rating (1.03) and Union Espanola's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union Espanola's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union La Calera's last 57 games and Union Espanola's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
44%
2.26
24%
4.21
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
3.07
1.40
Union Espanola xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
6%
16.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.8 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union La Calera vs Union Espanola Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.40 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union La Calera's recent record stands at 17W 23D 17L from 57 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Union Espanola, meanwhile, have gone 18W 16D 23L across 57 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.30 PPG, Union Espanola on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union La Calera have managed 10W 12D 6L from their last 28 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Espanola's away record stands at 8W 5D 15L across their last 28 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union La Calera are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.30 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union La Calera have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
Union La Calera (Home) vs Union Espanola (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union La Calera
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ Union La Calera vs Union Espanola Form FAQs
What form are Union La Calera and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 17W 23D 17L in their last 57 games (1.30 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 18W 16D 23L in their last 57 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Union Espanola away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.50 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2021. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent in our data was on 19 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Nov 2023, when Union La Calera won Union La Calera 4-0 Union Espanola.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Union Espanola specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union La Calera
1
Draws
4
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Union La Calera vs Union Espanola H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Union Espanola?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union La Calera have won 5, Union Espanola have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Union Espanola last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 July 2025: Union Espanola 3-1 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Union Espanola?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 64%, Union Espanola 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Union La Calera) and 46% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Union Espanola in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union La Calera vs Union Espanola Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union La Calera and Union Espanola matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Union La Calera's games and 50% of Union Espanola's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union La Calera and Union Espanola matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Union La Calera's recent games and 46% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Union Espanola matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 79% of Union Espanola's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union La Calera run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Union Espanola.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Union Espanola 4-0 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.68 xG and Union Espanola 1.40 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Union La Calera beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Espanola landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.03 / defence 1.18 against Union Espanola attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 44% | Draw 24% | Union Espanola 32%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 47%, Union Espanola 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Espanola's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.30 PPG, Union Espanola 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.