Union La Calera 2-1 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nublense at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs Nublense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 11 as Union La Calera welcome Nublense to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union La Calera's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, Nublense have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nublense's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union La Calera 1.40 PPG, Nublense 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Union La Calera, 0 for Nublense and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Union La Calera trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Nublense trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union La Calera 60% and Nublense 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 50% | Nublense 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.32 xG and Nublense 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.712 / defence 1.156 | Nublense attack 1.187 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.304. Union La Calera's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nublense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Union La Calera's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Union La Calera games / 40 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 28% | Draw 23% | Nublense 49%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Nublense 2.04. Nublense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nublense are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nublense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Union La Calera 70% | Nublense 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 28% | Draw 23% | Nublense 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Union La Calera 1.32 / Nublense 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.712 / def 1.156 | Nublense attack 1.187 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Nublense (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Nublense xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Nublense kick off?
Union La Calera vs Nublense kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Union La Calera 2 - 1 Nublense.
Where is Union La Calera vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Nublense part of?
Union La Calera vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 28% chance of winning, Nublense a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Union La Calera and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Nublense?
Record (5 meetings): Union La Calera 1W | Draws 4 | Nublense 0W.
What form are Union La Calera and Nublense in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Nublense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union La Calera's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Nublense's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Nublense's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
28%
3.53
23%
4.32
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
3.11
1.79
Nublense xG
3.53
28%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
17%
5.98
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
5%
21.15
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.79 for Nublense, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union La Calera's recent record stands at 19W 23D 18L from 60 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Nublense, meanwhile, have gone 23W 18D 19L across 60 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.33 PPG, Nublense on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union La Calera have managed 11W 12D 7L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nublense's away record stands at 10W 10D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Union La Calera are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.32 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union La Calera have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Nublense in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Nublense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Nublense in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 19W 23D 18L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Nublense have gone 23W 18D 19L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Nublense away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.50 PPG; Nublense away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Union La Calera won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Nublense specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union La Calera
5
Draws
1
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Nublense?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 4, Nublense have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Union La Calera 0-1 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Nublense?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 60%, Nublense 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union La Calera) and 40% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Nublense in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Nublense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Union La Calera's games and 57% of Nublense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union La Calera vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union La Calera's recent games and 40% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Nublense tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Nublense in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat Nublense 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Nublense 2-1 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.32 xG and Nublense 1.79 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.71 / defence 1.16 against Nublense attack 1.19 / defence 1.26, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 28% | Draw 23% | Nublense 49%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Union La Calera win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 50%, Nublense 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.33 PPG, Nublense 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Nublense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.