Palestino 1-2 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Coquimbo Unido make the trip to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna to face Palestino in Primera División, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 November 2025 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Palestino's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palestino have posted 6W 2D 2L at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Palestino are significantly better at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna than their overall form suggests.
Coquimbo Unido have collected 3.00 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.50 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Coquimbo Unido arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Palestino lead 2W to 0W over the last 7 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Palestino half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 52% versus Coquimbo Unido 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 48% | Coquimbo Unido 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 0.85 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 0.981 / defence 0.925 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.150 / defence 0.603. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.113. Coquimbo Unido's defence strength of 0.603 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Palestino games / 56 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palestino 26% | Draw 30% | Coquimbo Unido 44%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Coquimbo Unido 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Palestino dominate the H2H record, yet Coquimbo Unido are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Coquimbo Unido are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Palestino 60% | Coquimbo Unido 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 26% | Draw 30% | Coquimbo Unido 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Palestino 0.85 / Coquimbo Unido 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 0.981 / def 0.925 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.150 / def 0.603 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Coquimbo Unido xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Palestino 1 - 2 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 26% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Palestino and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (7 meetings): Palestino 2W | Draws 5 | Coquimbo Unido 0W.
What form are Palestino and Coquimbo Unido in?
Palestino (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palestino's attack at 0.98x the league average against Coquimbo Unido's defence at 0.60x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (1.15x) against Palestino's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
26%
3.78
30%
3.34
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Palestino xG
Total xG
2.04
1.18
Coquimbo Unido xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
8%
12.36
19%
5.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 15.5 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Palestino and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Palestino and 1.18 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palestino's recent record stands at 26W 13D 17L from 56 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido, meanwhile, have gone 32W 14D 10L across 56 games — 1.96 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Palestino against 1.96 for Coquimbo Unido. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Palestino have managed 16W 5D 7L from 28 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Coquimbo Unido's away record stands at 15W 5D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Palestino are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.38 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Coquimbo Unido in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palestino and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 26W 13D 17L in their last 56 games (1.62 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 32W 14D 10L in their last 56 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Palestino's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.89 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Palestino or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palestino won 5-1 on 16 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palestino have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Palestino
5
Draws
2
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Coquimbo Unido?
From 10 meetings on record, Palestino have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Palestino 2-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Coquimbo Unido?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 46%, Coquimbo Unido 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Palestino) and 43% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 39%; Coquimbo Unido in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palestino play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Palestino's recent matches and 39% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Palestino's recent games and 43% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palestino and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Palestino have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Palestino 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Palestino 1-2 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 0.85 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.18 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.15 / defence 0.60, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 26% | Draw 30% | Coquimbo Unido 44%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 48%, Coquimbo Unido 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palestino 1.62 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Palestino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.