Deportes Limache 1-2 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Deportes Limache face Coquimbo Unido.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Coquimbo Unido make the trip to Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza to face Deportes Limache in Primera División (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Friday 28 February 2025 at 23:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Coquimbo Unido (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Coquimbo Unido's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Limache 1.04 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Limache attack 0.774 / defence 1.108 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.194 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.134. Deportes Limache's attack rating of 0.774 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from Deportes Limache's last 2 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Deportes Limache 26% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 48%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Limache 3.79 | Draw 3.86 | Coquimbo Unido 2.10. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Deportes Limache 2 games, Coquimbo Unido 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Limache vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, matchday 3 | Venue: Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza • Kick-off: Friday 28 February 2025 at 23:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Limache 26% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Deportes Limache 1.04 / Coquimbo Unido 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Limache attack 0.774 / def 1.108 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.194 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Deportes Limache xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Coquimbo Unido xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Deportes Limache vs Coquimbo Unido FAQs
What time does Deportes Limache vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Deportes Limache vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 23:00 UK time on Friday 28 February 2025 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What was the final score in Deportes Limache vs Coquimbo Unido?
Deportes Limache 1 - 2 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Deportes Limache vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What competition is Deportes Limache vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Deportes Limache vs Coquimbo Unido is a Primera División fixture (matchday 3) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Limache vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Limache a 26% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Limache vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Deportes Limache and Coquimbo Unido will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Deportes Limache vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Deportes Limache's attack at 0.77x the league average against Coquimbo Unido's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (1.19x) against Deportes Limache's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from Deportes Limache's last 2 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
26%
3.79
26%
3.86
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Deportes Limache xG
Total xG
2.54
1.50
Coquimbo Unido xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
6%
16.99
17%
5.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Deportes Limache vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Limache vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Deportes Limache and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Deportes Limache and 1.50 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Limache vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Limache
Pre-Season
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Deportes Limache (Home) vs Coquimbo Unido (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Deportes Limache
Pre-Season
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Deportes Limache and Coquimbo Unido, the earliest from February 2025. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 31 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Coquimbo Unido have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Limache have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Deportes Limache
0
Draws
3
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Deportes Limache vs Coquimbo Unido H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Coquimbo Unido?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Deportes Limache have won 0, Coquimbo Unido have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Limache and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 May 2026: Deportes Limache 2-3 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Limache and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Limache home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Deportes Limache 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Deportes Limache 1-2 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.04 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.50 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 0.77 / defence 1.11 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.19 / defence 0.83, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 26% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 48%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.