D. La Serena 3-3 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates D. La Serena at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this D. La Serena vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio La Portada plays host to D. La Serena versus Cobresal in Primera División, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 23 August 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
D. La Serena (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for D. La Serena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
D. La Serena's home record at Estadio La Portada: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Cobresal's overall Primera División record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobresal's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for D. La Serena, 0.70 for Cobresal — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for D. La Serena, 4 for Cobresal and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with D. La Serena winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
D. La Serena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cobresal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — D. La Serena 65% and Cobresal 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (D. La Serena 55% | Cobresal 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects D. La Serena 1.99 xG and Cobresal 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: D. La Serena attack 0.978 / defence 1.032 | Cobresal attack 0.859 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.321. Cobresal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing D. La Serena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 D. La Serena games / 49 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: D. La Serena 56% | Draw 22% | Cobresal 22%. Fair-value odds: D. La Serena 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Cobresal 4.55. The model has a clear lean to D. La Serena (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is D. La Serena at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: D. La Serena 50% | Cobresal 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: D. La Serena vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio La Portada • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: D. La Serena 56% | Draw 22% | Cobresal 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG D. La Serena 1.99 / Cobresal 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: D. La Serena attack 0.978 / def 1.032 | Cobresal attack 0.859 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: D. La Serena (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
D. La Serena xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Cobresal xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does D. La Serena vs Cobresal kick off?
D. La Serena vs Cobresal kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Estadio La Portada.
What was the final score in D. La Serena vs Cobresal?
D. La Serena 3 - 3 Cobresal.
Where is D. La Serena vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio La Portada.
What competition is D. La Serena vs Cobresal part of?
D. La Serena vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win D. La Serena vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives D. La Serena a 56% chance of winning, Cobresal a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making D. La Serena the favourite.
Will both teams score in D. La Serena vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both D. La Serena and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will D. La Serena vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and Cobresal?
Record (7 meetings): D. La Serena 2W | Draws 1 | Cobresal 4W.
What form are D. La Serena and Cobresal in?
D. La Serena (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Cobresal (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates D. La Serena's attack at 0.98x the league average against Cobresal's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (0.86x) against D. La Serena's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
D. La Serena Win
56%
1.78
22%
4.62
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
D. La Serena xG
Total xG
3.16
1.17
Cobresal xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
3%
32.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for D. La Serena vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are D. La Serena and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for D. La Serena and 1.17 for Cobresal, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for D. La Serena vs Cobresal?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, D. La Serena have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 12W 14D 23L record — D-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for D. La Serena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cobresal's form line: 18W 7D 24L from 49 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for D. La Serena against 1.24 for Cobresal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, D. La Serena have posted 1.29 PPG from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L).
On the road, Cobresal have gone 5W 4D 15L from 24 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, D. La Serena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
D. La Serena are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.27 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: D. La Serena have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
D. La Serena
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are D. La Serena and Cobresal in coming into this match?
D. La Serena have gone 12W 14D 23L in their last 49 games (1.02 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 18W 7D 24L in their last 49 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — D. La Serena at home or Cobresal away?
D. La Serena's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — D. La Serena at home: 1.29 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, D. La Serena have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
D. La Serena
2
Draws
4
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and Cobresal?
From 8 meetings on record, D. La Serena have won 2, Cobresal have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did D. La Serena and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when D. La Serena 3-3 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between D. La Serena and Cobresal?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
D. La Serena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — D. La Serena 58%, Cobresal 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (D. La Serena) and 58% (Cobresal).
On the defensive side: Cobresal in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = D. La Serena home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when D. La Serena play Cobresal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of D. La Serena's games and 54% of Cobresal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is D. La Serena vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of D. La Serena's recent games and 58% of Cobresal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do D. La Serena and Cobresal tend to score early?
D. La Serena have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
D. La Serena and Cobresal share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
D. La Serena and Cobresal finished level at 3-3 at Estadio La Portada, Regular Season - 20, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting D. La Serena 1.99 xG and Cobresal 1.17 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. D. La Serena beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cobresal outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. La Serena attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Cobresal attack 0.86 / defence 1.28, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it D. La Serena 56% | Draw 22% | Cobresal 22%, with D. La Serena to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (D. La Serena 55%, Cobresal 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
D. La Serena's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Cobresal's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — D. La Serena 1.02 PPG, Cobresal 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. D. La Serena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.