Coquimbo Unido 0-1 Huachipato – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso plays host to Coquimbo Unido versus Huachipato in Primera División, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Monday 31 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Coquimbo Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Huachipato (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Huachipato, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Huachipato have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Coquimbo Unido's favour (1.30 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Coquimbo Unido lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 3–1 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Coquimbo Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Huachipato goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 53% versus Huachipato 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 47% | Huachipato 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.69 xG and Huachipato 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.887 / defence 0.888 | Huachipato attack 0.816 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.360. Huachipato bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Coquimbo Unido's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Coquimbo Unido games / 50 Huachipato games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 54% | Draw 24% | Huachipato 22%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Huachipato 4.55. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Coquimbo Unido 60% | Huachipato 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Monday 31 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 54% | Draw 24% | Huachipato 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.69 / Huachipato 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.887 / def 0.888 | Huachipato attack 0.816 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Huachipato xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 31 August 2026 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato?
Coquimbo Unido 0 - 1 Huachipato.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato being played?
The match is being played at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 54% chance of winning, Huachipato a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato?
Record (9 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 4W | Draws 2 | Huachipato 3W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Huachipato (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Coquimbo Unido's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Huachipato's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Huachipato's attack (0.82x) against Coquimbo Unido's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
54%
1.86
24%
4.14
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.67
0.98
Huachipato xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
4%
24.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.98 for Huachipato, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 49 games, going 30W 11D 8L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Huachipato sit at 1.35 PPG from 49 outings (19W 9D 21L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Huachipato is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Huachipato — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 15W 6D 3L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Huachipato have taken 0.83 points per game from 24 outings (5W 5D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Huachipato's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Huachipato are on 1.47 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Huachipato
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 30W 11D 8L in their last 49 games (2.06 PPG), while Huachipato have gone 19W 9D 21L in their last 49 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Huachipato away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 2.12 PPG; Huachipato away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Huachipato been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Huachipato in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Coquimbo Unido go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coquimbo Unido have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Huachipato — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Coquimbo Unido
2
Draws
3
Huachipato
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, Huachipato have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Huachipato 1-3 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Huachipato are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 54%, Huachipato 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Coquimbo Unido) and 54% (Huachipato).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Huachipato in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Huachipato away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Huachipato?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Coquimbo Unido's recent matches and 42% of Huachipato's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 54% of Huachipato's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Huachipato tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Huachipato in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Huachipato defy the odds to beat Coquimbo Unido 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Huachipato beat Coquimbo Unido 0-1 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 21, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.69 xG and Huachipato 0.98 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Coquimbo Unido fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.89 / defence 0.89 against Huachipato attack 0.82 / defence 1.23, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 54% | Draw 24% | Huachipato 22%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Huachipato win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 47%, Huachipato 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Huachipato's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Huachipato winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Huachipato (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.