York United 1-4 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
York United host Forge at York Lions Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 June 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
York United's home record at York Lions Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — York United are significantly better at York Lions Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Forge have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: York United 1.00 PPG, Forge 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. York United register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Forge in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Forge have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against York United's 0 victories.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–3 with Forge winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Forge have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
York United trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Forge trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 60% versus Forge 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 62% | Forge 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.77 xG and Forge 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.021 / defence 0.993 | Forge attack 1.009 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 28 York United games / 28 Forge games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: York United 48% | Draw 27% | Forge 26%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Forge 3.85. York United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, York United are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on York United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: York United 60% | Forge 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jun 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 48% | Draw 27% | Forge 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG York United 1.77 / Forge 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 1.021 / def 0.993 | Forge attack 1.009 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: York United (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Forge xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Forge kick off?
York United vs Forge kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 7 June 2026 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Forge?
York United 1 - 4 Forge.
Where is York United vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Forge part of?
York United vs Forge is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives York United a 48% chance of winning, Forge a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both York United and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
Record (8 meetings): York United 0W | Draws 3 | Forge 5W.
What form are York United and Forge in?
York United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Forge (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
York United's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Forge's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus York United's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.74
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
York United xG
Total xG
3.05
1.27
Forge xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
17%
5.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
4%
22.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are York United and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for York United and 1.27 for Forge, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, York United have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 22W 16D 22L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Forge's form line: 31W 15D 14L from 60 games, 1.80 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Venue Form
On home soil, York United have posted 1.79 PPG from 29 outings (15W 7D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — York United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Forge have gone 11W 9D 9L from 29 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
York United are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.62 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Forge in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Current Season
Forge
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Forge in coming into this match?
York United have gone 22W 16D 22L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Forge have gone 31W 15D 14L in their last 60 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Forge away?
York United's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.79 PPG; Forge away: 1.45 PPG.
Have York United or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Forge in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Forge go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
York United's record when hosting Forge specifically: 0W 2D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
York United
3
Draws
7
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 0, Forge have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did York United and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between York United and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 59%, Forge 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (York United) and 52% (Forge). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: York United keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Forge in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Forge?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of York United's games and 52% of Forge's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is York United vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of York United's matches and 52% of Forge's.
Do York United and Forge tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Forge in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Forge run riot with a 1-4 hammering of York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat York United 1-4 at York Lions Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.77 xG and Forge 1.27 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Forge outscored their 1.27 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.02 / defence 0.99 against Forge attack 1.01 / defence 0.96, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 48% | Draw 27% | Forge 26%, with York United to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Forge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 62%, Forge 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Forge's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win. York United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Forge (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.