York United 1-0 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 May 2023 at 22:00 UTC.
Form
York United (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at York Lions Stadium, York United have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at York Lions Stadium this season.
Cavalry FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for York United against 1.40 for Cavalry FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
York United — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cavalry FC — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 54% versus Cavalry FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 49% | Cavalry FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 0.91 xG and Cavalry FC 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.861 / defence 1.100 | Cavalry FC attack 0.924 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 0.954 / away 1.431. Data: 34 York United games / 34 Cavalry FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: York United 20% | Draw 34% | Cavalry FC 46%. Fair-value odds: York United 5.00 | Draw 2.94 | Cavalry FC 2.17. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: York United 50% | Cavalry FC 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 20% | Draw 34% | Cavalry FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG York United 0.91 / Cavalry FC 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.861 / def 1.100 | Cavalry FC attack 0.924 / def 1.101 | league avg home 0.954 / away 1.431 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Cavalry FC xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Cavalry FC kick off?
York United vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Cavalry FC?
York United 1 - 0 Cavalry FC.
Where is York United vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Cavalry FC part of?
York United vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 20% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 46% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both York United and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Cavalry FC in?
York United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates York United's attack at 0.86x the league average against Cavalry FC's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (0.92x) against York United's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
The sample (34/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
20%
5.08
34%
2.94
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
York United xG
Total xG
2.36
1.46
Cavalry FC xG
5.08
20%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
5%
21.76
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 13.7 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are York United and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for York United and 1.46 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
York United come into this having played 57 games, going 17W 19D 21L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D.
On the other side, Cavalry FC sit at 1.61 PPG from 57 outings (26W 14D 17L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for York United against 1.61 for Cavalry FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
York United's home form reads 9W 10D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Cavalry FC have taken 1.46 points per game from 28 outings (11W 8D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
York United are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.23 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Cavalry FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 17W 19D 21L in their last 57 games (1.23 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 26W 14D 17L in their last 57 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.32 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.46 PPG.
Have York United or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 5-0 on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
York United
1
Draws
7
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 2, Cavalry FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did York United and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 5-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
York United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 54%, Cavalry FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (York United) and 50% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC in 32%; York United have failed to score in 32% of games; Cavalry FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of York United's recent matches and 50% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of York United's recent games and 50% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as York United defy the odds to beat Cavalry FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Cavalry FC 1-0 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 0.91 xG and Cavalry FC 1.46 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cavalry FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.86 / defence 1.10 against Cavalry FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it York United 20% | Draw 34% | Cavalry FC 46%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a York United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 49%, Cavalry FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.23 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.