Vancouver FC 0-0 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vancouver FC vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre plays host to Vancouver FC versus Valour in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Monday 29 May 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valour (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, Valour have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 0.84 xG and Valour 2.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.762 / defence 1.489 | Valour attack 1.092 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 0.957 / away 1.379. Vancouver FC's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Vancouver FC games / 34 Valour games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 10% | Draw 23% | Valour 66%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 10.00 | Draw 4.35 | Valour 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Valour (66%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valour at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (6 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre • Kick-off: Monday 29 May 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 10% | Draw 23% | Valour 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 54% | xG Vancouver FC 0.84 / Valour 2.24 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.762 / def 1.489 | Valour attack 1.092 / def 1.159 | league avg home 0.957 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Valour (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
2.24
Valour xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs Valour kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Valour kicked off at 01:00 on Monday 29 May 2023 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Vancouver FC 0 - 0 Valour.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Valour part of?
Vancouver FC vs Valour is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 10% chance of winning, Valour a 66% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Vancouver FC and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Valour?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vancouver FC and Valour in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Valour away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vancouver FC's attack at 0.76x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (1.09x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 2.24.
The sample (6/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
10%
9.92
23%
4.27
66%
1.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
3.09
2.24
Valour xG
9.92
10%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.50
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
11%
9.43
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
1%
93.56
29%
3.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 10.2 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 2.24 for Valour, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Pre-Season
Valour
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 6 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Valour go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vancouver FC won 4-1 on 15 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Vancouver FC
2
Draws
4
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 4, Valour have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2025, when Vancouver FC 2-5 Valour.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Vancouver FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre, Regular Season - 4, as Vancouver FC and Valour drew 0-0 in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 0.84 xG and Valour 2.24 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vancouver FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Valour landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.49 against Valour attack 1.09 / defence 1.16, drawn from 6/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 10% | Draw 23% | Valour 66%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.