Valour 1-0 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valour vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
IG Field plays host to Valour versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Valour at IG Field this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
York United (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
York United's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Valour — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
York United — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 43% versus York United 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 50% | York United 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.21 xG and York United 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.848 / defence 0.871 | York United attack 1.006 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.122. Data: 32 Valour games / 33 York United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Valour 41% | Draw 29% | York United 30%. Fair-value odds: Valour 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | York United 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valour at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Valour 40% | York United 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 41% | Draw 29% | York United 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Valour 1.21 / York United 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.848 / def 0.871 | York United attack 1.006 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Valour (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Valour xG
Expected Goals
0.98
York United xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs York United kick off?
Valour vs York United kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs York United?
Valour 1 - 0 York United.
Where is Valour vs York United being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs York United part of?
Valour vs York United is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 41% chance of winning, York United a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs York United?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Valour and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valour and York United in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. York United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valour's attack at 0.85x the league average against York United's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (1.01x) against Valour's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
The sample (32/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
41%
2.43
29%
3.45
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Valour xG
Total xG
2.19
0.98
York United xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Valour and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Valour and 0.98 for York United, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valour come into this having played 28 games, going 10W 5D 13L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, York United sit at 1.29 PPG from 28 outings (8W 12D 8L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Valour against 1.29 for York United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Valour's home form reads 7W 3D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Valour are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, York United have taken 1.21 points per game from 14 outings (4W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valour come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valour are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.25 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United in 68%.
Defensively: Valour have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and York United in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 10W 5D 13L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while York United have gone 8W 12D 8L in their last 28 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or York United away?
Valour's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.71 PPG; York United away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Valour or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, York United in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valour
2
Draws
5
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 3, York United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and York United last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when York United 1-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 29%, York United 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Valour) and 64% (York United).
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Valour have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Valour's recent matches and 71% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Valour's recent games and 64% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and York United tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, York United in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valour edge out York United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat York United 1-0 at IG Field, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.21 xG and York United 0.98 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. York United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.85 / defence 0.87 against York United attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 32/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Valour 41% | Draw 29% | York United 30%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 50%, York United 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
York United's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 1.25 PPG, York United 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valour win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.