Pacific FC 1-2 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pacific FC host Cavalry FC at Starlight Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 July 2023 at 02:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pacific FC — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Starlight Stadium, Pacific FC have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Cavalry FC have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Pacific FC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Pacific FC trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 50% versus Cavalry FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 43% | Cavalry FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.35 xG and Cavalry FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.020 / defence 0.813 | Cavalry FC attack 0.973 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.227. Data: 40 Pacific FC games / 40 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 45% | Draw 29% | Cavalry FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Cavalry FC 3.85. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pacific FC 40% | Cavalry FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jul 2023, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 45% | Draw 29% | Cavalry FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Pacific FC 1.35 / Cavalry FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.020 / def 0.813 | Cavalry FC attack 0.973 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Cavalry FC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 02:00 on Sunday 9 July 2023 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Pacific FC 1 - 2 Cavalry FC.
Where is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC part of?
Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 45% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pacific FC and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (1.02) and Cavalry FC's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
45%
2.23
29%
3.47
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.32
0.97
Cavalry FC xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
7%
14.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Pacific FC and 0.97 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Pacific FC have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 20W 12D 10L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC's form line: 18W 12D 12L from 42 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.71 PPG, Cavalry FC on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pacific FC have posted 1.67 PPG from 21 outings (9W 8D 4L).
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 5W 8D 8L from 21 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cavalry FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.40 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 20W 12D 10L in their last 42 games (1.71 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 18W 12D 12L in their last 42 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Cavalry FC away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
3
Draws
6
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 52%, Cavalry FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Pacific FC) and 48% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cavalry FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 52% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Pacific FC's recent games and 48% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cavalry FC defy the odds to beat Pacific FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Pacific FC 1-2 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.35 xG and Cavalry FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cavalry FC outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.81 against Cavalry FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 45% | Draw 29% | Cavalry FC 26%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 43%, Cavalry FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.71 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.