Pacific FC 0-2 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Championship - Semi-finals sees Atlético Ottawa travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Pacific FC's home record at Starlight Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Atlético Ottawa have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atlético Ottawa's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pacific FC 1.40 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 55% versus Atlético Ottawa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 57% | Atlético Ottawa 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 0.99 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.039 / defence 1.005 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.302 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.134. Atlético Ottawa's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Atlético Ottawa have an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Pacific FC games / 56 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 25% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 49%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Atlético Ottawa 2.04. Atlético Ottawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atlético Ottawa at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 50% | Atlético Ottawa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Championship - Semi-finals | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 25% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Pacific FC 0.99 / Atlético Ottawa 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.039 / def 1.005 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.302 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Atlético Ottawa xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Pacific FC 0 - 2 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa is a Championship - Semi-finals fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 25% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (1.04) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atlético Ottawa's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
25%
3.95
26%
3.82
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.48
1.48
Atlético Ottawa xG
3.95
25%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
6%
17.41
18%
5.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.5 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.48 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pacific FC come into this having played 56 games, going 27W 12D 17L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 1.34 PPG from 56 outings (19W 18D 19L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.66 PPG, Atlético Ottawa on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pacific FC's home form reads 15W 7D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 1.37 points per game from 27 outings (10W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pacific FC are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.18 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 27W 12D 17L in their last 56 games (1.66 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 19W 18D 19L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.93 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Atlético Ottawa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Atlético Ottawa specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
2
Draws
7
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Atlético Ottawa have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 3-2 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 74%, Atlético Ottawa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Pacific FC) and 41% (Atlético Ottawa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Atlético Ottawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Pacific FC's games and 52% of Atlético Ottawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Pacific FC's matches and 41% of Atlético Ottawa's.
Do Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pacific FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Pacific FC 0-2 at Starlight Stadium, Championship - Semi-finals, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 0.99 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.48 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pacific FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.00 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.30 / defence 0.73, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 25% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 49%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 57%, Atlético Ottawa 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.66 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.