Forge 3-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees York United travel to Tim Hortons Field to take on Forge. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021, 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge at Tim Hortons Field this season: 4W 1D 3L from 8 home games — 1.62 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tim Hortons Field. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United away from home this season: 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Forge) versus 1.50 (York United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
York United trading profile (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 23% versus York United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Forge 31% | York United 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.50 xG and York United 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.091 / defence 1.042 | York United attack 0.927 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 0.995 / away 0.912. York United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Forge's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Forge games / 13 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 52% | Draw 26% | York United 22%. Fair-value odds: Forge 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | York United 4.55. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Forge 25% | York United 57% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 52% | Draw 26% | York United 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Forge 1.50 / York United 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.091 / def 1.042 | York United attack 0.927 / def 1.384 | league avg home 0.995 / away 0.912 • Poisson stance: Forge (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Forge xG
Expected Goals
0.88
York United xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs York United kick off?
Forge vs York United kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs York United?
Forge 3 - 1 York United.
Where is Forge vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs York United part of?
Forge vs York United is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 52% chance of winning, York United a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs York United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Forge and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and York United in?
Forge (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. York United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Forge's attack rating (1.09) and York United's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
52%
1.93
26%
3.83
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Forge xG
Total xG
2.38
0.88
York United xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
5%
20.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.2 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Forge and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Forge and 0.88 for York United, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Forge have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 7W 1D 5L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United's form line: 4W 5D 4L from 13 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Forge on 1.69 PPG, York United on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Forge have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L).
On the road, York United have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.00 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Forge have seen both teams score in 23% of their recent games.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and York United in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 7W 1D 5L in their last 13 games (1.69 PPG), while York United have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or York United away?
Forge's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.86 PPG; York United away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Forge or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, York United in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Forge have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting York United specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Forge
3
Draws
0
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 7, York United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and York United last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and York United?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
York United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 29%, York United 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Forge) and 57% (York United).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; York United in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Forge's recent matches and 57% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Forge's recent games and 57% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and York United tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, York United in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Forge cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat York United 3-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.50 xG and York United 0.88 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Forge beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.09 / defence 1.04 against York United attack 0.93 / defence 1.38, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 52% | Draw 26% | York United 22%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 31%, York United 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
York United's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.69 PPG, York United 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. Forge (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. York United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.