Forge 3-0 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Forge at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Forge vs York United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees York United travel to Tim Hortons Field to take on Forge. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 October 2025, 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge at Tim Hortons Field this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tim Hortons Field. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Forge are significantly better at Tim Hortons Field than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Forge carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Forge: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for York United, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Forge winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Forge and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
York United trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 49% versus York United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 53% | York United 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.73 xG and York United 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.088 / defence 0.684 | York United attack 0.847 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.823 / away 1.235. Forge's defence rating of 0.684 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Forge games / 55 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 59% | Draw 29% | York United 12%. Fair-value odds: Forge 1.69 | Draw 3.45 | York United 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Forge (59%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Forge 50% | York United 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 59% | Draw 29% | York United 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Forge 1.73 / York United 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.088 / def 0.684 | York United attack 0.847 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.823 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Forge (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Forge xG
Expected Goals
0.71
York United xG
45%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs York United kick off?
Forge vs York United kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs York United?
Forge 3 - 0 York United.
Where is Forge vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs York United part of?
Forge vs York United is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 59% chance of winning, York United a 12% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs York United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Forge and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
Record (7 meetings): Forge 4W | Draws 3 | York United 0W.
What form are Forge and York United in?
Forge (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. York United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Forge's attack rating (1.09) and York United's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
59%
1.70
29%
3.43
12%
8.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Forge xG
Total xG
2.44
0.71
York United xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
8.24
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
2%
46.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 10.7 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Forge and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Forge and 0.71 for York United, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs York United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Forge have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 30W 15D 12L record — L-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United's form line: 22W 15D 20L from 57 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Forge have posted 2.25 PPG from 28 outings (19W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.84 PPG overall — Forge are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, York United have gone 7W 8D 13L from 28 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.44 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and York United in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 30W 15D 12L in their last 57 games (1.84 PPG), while York United have gone 22W 15D 20L in their last 57 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or York United away?
Forge's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 2.25 PPG; York United away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Forge or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, York United in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Forge have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting York United specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Forge
3
Draws
0
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 7, York United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and York United last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and York United?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 46%, York United 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Forge) and 57% (York United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Forge's recent matches and 61% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Forge's matches and 57% of York United's.
Do Forge and York United tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, York United in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Forge run riot with a 3-0 hammering of York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat York United 3-0 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 28, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.73 xG and York United 0.71 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Forge beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.09 / defence 0.68 against York United attack 0.85 / defence 0.87, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 59% | Draw 29% | York United 12%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 53%, York United 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
York United's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Forge (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.