Forge 2-0 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Forge (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Forge face York United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees York United travel to Tim Hortons Field to take on Forge. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024, 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge at Tim Hortons Field this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tim Hortons Field.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Forge carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Forge, 0 for York United and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
York United trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 51% versus York United 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 58% | York United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.75 xG and York United 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.338 / defence 0.780 | York United attack 0.915 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.177. Forge carry an above-average attack strength of 1.338 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Forge's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Forge games / 52 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 57% | Draw 27% | York United 16%. Fair-value odds: Forge 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | York United 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Forge (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Forge 50% | York United 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 57% | Draw 27% | York United 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Forge 1.75 / York United 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.338 / def 0.780 | York United attack 0.915 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Forge (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Forge xG
Expected Goals
0.84
York United xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs York United kick off?
Forge vs York United kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs York United?
Forge 2 - 0 York United.
Where is Forge vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs York United part of?
Forge vs York United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 57% chance of winning, York United a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs York United?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Forge and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
Record (3 meetings): Forge 2W | Draws 1 | York United 0W.
What form are Forge and York United in?
Forge (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. York United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Forge's attack rating (1.34) and York United's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
57%
1.75
27%
3.72
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Forge xG
Total xG
2.59
0.84
York United xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
3%
36.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Forge and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Forge and 0.84 for York United, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs York United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Forge have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 26W 13D 14L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United's form line: 21W 11D 21L from 53 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Forge on 1.72 PPG, York United on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Forge have posted 2.00 PPG from 26 outings (15W 7D 4L).
On the road, York United have gone 10W 6D 10L from 26 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.26 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and York United in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 26W 13D 14L in their last 53 games (1.72 PPG), while York United have gone 21W 11D 21L in their last 53 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or York United away?
Forge's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 2.00 PPG; York United away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Forge or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, York United in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Forge have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting York United specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Forge
3
Draws
0
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 7, York United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and York United last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and York United?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Forge at 62%, York United at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Forge and 65% for York United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Forge's games and 69% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Forge vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Forge's matches and 65% of York United's.
Do Forge and York United tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, York United in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Forge cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat York United 2-0 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.75 xG and York United 0.84 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. York United landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.34 / defence 0.78 against York United attack 0.92 / defence 0.88, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 57% | Draw 27% | York United 16%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 58%, York United 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
York United's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.72 PPG, York United 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. Forge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.