Forge 0-1 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Forge welcome Atlético Ottawa to Tim Hortons Field. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 July 2022 at 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Tim Hortons Field this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Atlético Ottawa — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Forge at 1.70 PPG versus Atlético Ottawa's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Atlético Ottawa trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 35% versus Atlético Ottawa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 48% | Atlético Ottawa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.17 xG and Atlético Ottawa 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.126 / defence 0.783 | Atlético Ottawa attack 0.969 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.296. Forge's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Forge games / 40 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 40% | Draw 29% | Atlético Ottawa 31%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Atlético Ottawa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Forge as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Forge 40% | Atlético Ottawa 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Jul 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 40% | Draw 29% | Atlético Ottawa 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Forge 1.17 / Atlético Ottawa 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.126 / def 0.783 | Atlético Ottawa attack 0.969 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Forge (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Forge xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Atlético Ottawa xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Forge vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 3 July 2022 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Atlético Ottawa?
Forge 0 - 1 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Forge vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Forge vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 40% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Forge and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Atlético Ottawa in?
Forge (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Forge's attack at 1.13x the league average against Atlético Ottawa's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atlético Ottawa's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
40%
2.49
29%
3.41
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Forge xG
Total xG
2.16
0.98
Atlético Ottawa xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
9%
10.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Forge and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Forge and 0.98 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Forge have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 22W 4D 14L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atlético Ottawa's form line: 12W 11D 17L from 40 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Atlético Ottawa.
Venue Form
On home soil, Forge have posted 1.80 PPG from 20 outings (11W 3D 6L).
On the road, Atlético Ottawa have gone 6W 5D 9L from 20 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Forge are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.08 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 22W 4D 14L in their last 40 games (1.75 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 12W 11D 17L in their last 40 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Forge's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.80 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Forge or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Forge won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting Atlético Ottawa specifically: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Forge
3
Draws
3
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 4, Atlético Ottawa have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 2-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Atlético Ottawa?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Atlético Ottawa see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 40%, Atlético Ottawa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Forge) and 35% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Atlético Ottawa in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Forge's recent matches and 50% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Forge's recent games and 35% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atlético Ottawa defy the odds to beat Forge 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Forge 0-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.17 xG and Atlético Ottawa 0.98 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Forge fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.13 / defence 0.78 against Atlético Ottawa attack 0.97 / defence 0.82, drawn from 38/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 40% | Draw 29% | Atlético Ottawa 31%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Atlético Ottawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 48%, Atlético Ottawa 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Atlético Ottawa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.