FC Edmonton 2-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pacific FC at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Pacific FC travel to Clarke Field to take on FC Edmonton. The game is scheduled for Thursday 7 October 2021, 02:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Edmonton stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton's home record at Clarke Field: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FC Edmonton are significantly better at Clarke Field than their overall form suggests.
Pacific FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pacific FC are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Edmonton, 1 for Pacific FC and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Edmonton in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Edmonton 52% versus Pacific FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Edmonton 43% | Pacific FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 1.02 xG and Pacific FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 0.912 / defence 1.167 | Pacific FC attack 0.972 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 1.156. Data: 21 FC Edmonton games / 21 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 28% | Draw 30% | Pacific FC 42%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Pacific FC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Edmonton 50% | Pacific FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Oct 2021, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 28% | Draw 30% | Pacific FC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG FC Edmonton 1.02 / Pacific FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 0.912 / def 1.167 | Pacific FC attack 0.972 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.009 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Pacific FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC kick off?
FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC kicked off at 02:00 on Thursday 7 October 2021 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
FC Edmonton 2 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC part of?
FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 28% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Edmonton and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC?
Record (3 meetings): FC Edmonton 0W | Draws 2 | Pacific FC 1W.
What form are FC Edmonton and Pacific FC in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Edmonton's attack rating (0.91) and Pacific FC's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus FC Edmonton's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
28%
3.58
30%
3.36
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
2.33
1.31
Pacific FC xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
8%
13.27
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 1.31 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Edmonton come into this having played 21 games, going 4W 7D 10L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pacific FC sit at 1.86 PPG from 21 outings (11W 6D 4L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Edmonton's home form reads 3W 3D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Pacific FC have taken 1.60 points per game from 10 outings (4W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.71 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 4W 7D 10L in their last 21 games (0.90 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 11W 6D 4L in their last 21 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or Pacific FC away?
Pacific FC's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.20 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.60 PPG.
Have FC Edmonton or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Edmonton have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pacific FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2021, when Pacific FC won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Edmonton's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
FC Edmonton
3
Draws
5
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC?
From 9 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 1, Pacific FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2022, when Pacific FC 1-0 FC Edmonton.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Edmonton see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Edmonton 50%, Pacific FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (FC Edmonton) and 50% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC in 40%; FC Edmonton have failed to score in 30% of games; Pacific FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Edmonton's recent matches and 50% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 50% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as FC Edmonton defy the odds to beat Pacific FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Edmonton beat Pacific FC 2-1 at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 1.02 xG and Pacific FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC Edmonton beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 0.91 / defence 1.17 against Pacific FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.11, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 28% | Draw 30% | Pacific FC 42%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual FC Edmonton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 43%, Pacific FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Pacific FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with FC Edmonton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.