Cavalry FC 0-1 York United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs York United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Wednesday 20 July 2022 at 02:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cavalry FC have posted 7W 1D 2L at ATCO Field — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at ATCO Field.
York United's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, York United have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 2.10 in Cavalry FC's favour (2.40 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
York United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 54% versus York United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 51% | York United 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.62 xG and York United 0.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.268 / defence 0.696 | York United attack 0.542 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.342. Cavalry FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cavalry FC's defence rating of 0.696 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Cavalry FC games / 43 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 65% | Draw 24% | York United 11%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.54 | Draw 4.17 | York United 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (65%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — York United's lower xG of 0.51 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates are neutral: Cavalry FC 50% | York United 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Jul 2022, 02:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 65% | Draw 24% | York United 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 32% | xG Cavalry FC 1.62 / York United 0.51 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.268 / def 0.696 | York United attack 0.542 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.51
York United xG
32%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs York United kick off?
Cavalry FC vs York United kicked off at 02:30 on Wednesday 20 July 2022 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Cavalry FC 0 - 1 York United.
Where is Cavalry FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs York United part of?
Cavalry FC vs York United is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 65% chance of winning, York United a 11% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Cavalry FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. York United (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against York United's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — York United's attack (0.54x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.51.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 18.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (15.6%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
65%
1.54
24%
4.18
11%
8.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.6%
Home win
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.12
0.51
York United xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
8.90
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.14
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
60%
1.66
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
39%
2.56
2%
44.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.3 | 9.8 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.6 | 7.9 | 2.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.51 for York United, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 22W 12D 9L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United's form line: 10W 17D 16L from 43 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 1.90 PPG from 20 outings (11W 5D 4L).
On the road, York United have gone 4W 8D 8L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.02 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 22W 12D 9L in their last 43 games (1.81 PPG), while York United have gone 10W 17D 16L in their last 43 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or York United away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.90 PPG; York United away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, York United in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 5-0 on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Cavalry FC
1
Draws
2
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 7, York United have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 5-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and York United?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
York United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 50%, York United 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cavalry FC) and 50% (York United).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; York United in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 55% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 50% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and York United tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, York United in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as York United defy the odds to beat Cavalry FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Cavalry FC 0-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.62 xG and York United 0.51 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cavalry FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.27 / defence 0.70 against York United attack 0.54 / defence 0.93, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 65% | Draw 24% | York United 11%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a York United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 51%, York United 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
York United's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with York United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. York United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.