Cavalry FC 3-1 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus Vancouver FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 11 June 2023 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at ATCO Field, Cavalry FC have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.22 xG and Vancouver FC 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.185 / defence 0.912 | Vancouver FC attack 0.737 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.302. Data: 36 Cavalry FC games / 8 Vancouver FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 40% | Draw 37% | Vancouver FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.50 | Draw 2.70 | Vancouver FC 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jun 2023, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 40% | Draw 37% | Vancouver FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Cavalry FC 1.22 / Vancouver FC 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.185 / def 0.912 | Vancouver FC attack 0.737 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Vancouver FC xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 11 June 2023 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Cavalry FC 3 - 1 Vancouver FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 40% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 23% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Cavalry FC home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Vancouver FC's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (0.74x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 36/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
40%
2.49
37%
2.68
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.10
0.88
Vancouver FC xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
7%
15.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.88 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Pre-Season
Vancouver FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cavalry FC
5
Draws
1
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 4, Vancouver FC have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Vancouver FC 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Cavalry FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vancouver FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Vancouver FC 3-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.22 xG and Vancouver FC 0.88 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.91 against Vancouver FC attack 0.74 / defence 0.96, drawn from 36/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 40% | Draw 37% | Vancouver FC 23%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.