Cavalry FC 6-0 Supra du Quebec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cavalry FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cavalry FC face Supra du Quebec.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Supra du Quebec make the trip to ATCO Field to face Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC at ATCO Field this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Supra du Quebec have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Supra du Quebec's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Cavalry FC. A 1.20 PPG lead over Supra du Quebec (2.30 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Supra du Quebec in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Cavalry FC 2W, Supra du Quebec 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cavalry FC — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Supra du Quebec — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cavalry FC 50% and Supra du Quebec 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 46% | Supra du Quebec 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 2.10 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.008 / defence 0.995 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 Cavalry FC games / 0 Supra du Quebec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 59% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 17%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Supra du Quebec 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 60% | Supra du Quebec 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Sep 2026, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 59% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Cavalry FC 2.10 / Supra du Quebec 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.008 / def 0.995 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Supra du Quebec xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 26 September 2026 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Cavalry FC 6 - 0 Supra du Quebec.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec part of?
Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 59% chance of winning, Supra du Quebec a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec?
Record (3 meetings): Cavalry FC 2W | Draws 1 | Supra du Quebec 0W.
What form are Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Supra du Quebec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 1.01x the league average against Supra du Quebec's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Supra du Quebec's attack (0.85x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 28/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
59%
1.68
23%
4.26
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
3.17
1.07
Supra du Quebec xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
12%
8.17
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
2%
47.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.07 for Supra du Quebec, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 15W 5D 2L from 22 games, a 2.27 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Supra du Quebec, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 11L across 22 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Supra du Quebec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 1.13 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Supra du Quebec heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 8W 3D 0L from 11 games — 2.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Supra du Quebec's away record stands at 4W 2D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.59 conceded per game recently; Supra du Quebec are on 1.41 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Supra du Quebec in 73%.
Defensively: Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Supra du Quebec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 15W 5D 2L in their last 22 games (2.27 PPG), while Supra du Quebec have gone 7W 4D 11L in their last 22 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Supra du Quebec away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.45 PPG; Supra du Quebec away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Supra du Quebec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Supra du Quebec in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 6-0 on 26 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Supra du Quebec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Cavalry FC
1
Draws
0
Supra du Quebec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec?
From 4 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 3, Supra du Quebec have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2026, when Cavalry FC 6-0 Supra du Quebec.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Supra du Quebec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Cavalry FC, 82% for Supra du Quebec — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Cavalry FC) and 64% (Supra du Quebec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Supra du Quebec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Supra du Quebec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Cavalry FC's games and 82% of Supra du Quebec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Cavalry FC's matches and 64% of Supra du Quebec's.
Do Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Supra du Quebec in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cavalry FC run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Supra du Quebec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Supra du Quebec 6-0 at ATCO Field, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 2.10 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.07 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Supra du Quebec landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 28/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 59% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 17%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 46%, Supra du Quebec 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Supra du Quebec's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm. Supra du Quebec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.