Cavalry FC 0-0 HFX Wanderers FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC meet at ATCO Field in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC at ATCO Field this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
HFX Wanderers FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for HFX Wanderers FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Cavalry FC half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
HFX Wanderers FC half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 56% versus HFX Wanderers FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 48% | HFX Wanderers FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.10 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 0.846 / defence 1.060 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.767 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.085 / away 1.181. Data: 23 Cavalry FC games / 23 HFX Wanderers FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 37% | Draw 33% | HFX Wanderers FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | HFX Wanderers FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cavalry FC 50% | HFX Wanderers FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 37% | Draw 33% | HFX Wanderers FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Cavalry FC 1.10 / HFX Wanderers FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 0.846 / def 1.060 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.767 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.085 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
HFX Wanderers FC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Cavalry FC 0 - 0 HFX Wanderers FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 37% chance of winning, HFX Wanderers FC a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (0.85) and HFX Wanderers FC's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — HFX Wanderers FC's attack (0.77x) against Cavalry FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
37%
2.70
33%
3.02
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.06
0.96
HFX Wanderers FC xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.96 for HFX Wanderers FC, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC come into this having played 23 games, going 11W 7D 5L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, HFX Wanderers FC sit at 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (8W 8D 7L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for HFX Wanderers FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.39 for HFX Wanderers FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cavalry FC's home form reads 4W 4D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, HFX Wanderers FC have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (1W 6D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of HFX Wanderers FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; HFX Wanderers FC are on 1.13 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
HFX Wanderers FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 11W 7D 5L in their last 23 games (1.74 PPG), while HFX Wanderers FC have gone 8W 8D 7L in their last 23 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or HFX Wanderers FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.60 PPG; HFX Wanderers FC away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or HFX Wanderers FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, HFX Wanderers FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 0-3 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against HFX Wanderers FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cavalry FC
4
Draws
1
HFX Wanderers FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 5, HFX Wanderers FC have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Cavalry FC 1-1 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 50%, HFX Wanderers FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Cavalry FC) and 40% (HFX Wanderers FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC have failed to score in 40% of games; HFX Wanderers FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / HFX Wanderers FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play HFX Wanderers FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Cavalry FC's games and 60% of HFX Wanderers FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs HFX Wanderers FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 40% of HFX Wanderers FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, HFX Wanderers FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cavalry FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC and HFX Wanderers FC finished level at 0-0 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.10 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 0.96 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cavalry FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. HFX Wanderers FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.06 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.20, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 37% | Draw 33% | HFX Wanderers FC 30%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 48%, HFX Wanderers FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.74 PPG, HFX Wanderers FC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.