Cavalry FC 3-1 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 47%, yet in-form Atlético Ottawa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atlético Ottawa make the trip to ATCO Field to face Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cavalry FC at ATCO Field this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Cavalry FC are significantly better at ATCO Field than their overall form suggests.
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atlético Ottawa's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Atlético Ottawa are 0.70 PPG clear of Cavalry FC in recent Canadian Premier League fixtures (2.20 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 7 meetings, Atlético Ottawa have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Cavalry FC's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Atlético Ottawa winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Atlético Ottawa have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 62% versus Atlético Ottawa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 53% | Atlético Ottawa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.77 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.038 / defence 0.977 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.038 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.809 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Cavalry FC games / 28 Atlético Ottawa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 47% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 26%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Atlético Ottawa 3.85. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atlético Ottawa (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Cavalry FC 50% | Atlético Ottawa 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 47% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Cavalry FC 1.77 / Atlético Ottawa 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.038 / def 0.977 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.038 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.809 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Atlético Ottawa xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Cavalry FC 3 - 1 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 47% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Record (7 meetings): Cavalry FC 1W | Draws 2 | Atlético Ottawa 4W.
What form are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (1.04) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.04x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.73
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
3.06
1.29
Atlético Ottawa xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
17%
5.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
4%
22.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.29 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC come into this having played 60 games, going 27W 21D 12L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 1.78 PPG from 60 outings (28W 23D 9L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.78 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cavalry FC's home form reads 15W 11D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 1.73 points per game from 30 outings (14W 10D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.70 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 27W 21D 12L in their last 60 games (1.70 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 28W 23D 9L in their last 60 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.87 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cavalry FC
2
Draws
4
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 4, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-1 Atlético Ottawa.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 63%, Atlético Ottawa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Cavalry FC) and 47% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Atlético Ottawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Cavalry FC's games and 50% of Atlético Ottawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 47% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cavalry FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Atlético Ottawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Atlético Ottawa 3-1 at ATCO Field, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.77 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.29 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 47% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 26%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 53%, Atlético Ottawa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.70 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.