Atlético Ottawa 0-0 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atlético Ottawa vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
TD Place Stadium plays host to Atlético Ottawa versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Wednesday 15 June 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atlético Ottawa have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atlético Ottawa's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at TD Place Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
York United (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
York United away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Atlético Ottawa, 1.00 for York United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Atlético Ottawa register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, York United in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
York United half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Atlético Ottawa 57% and York United 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 43% | York United 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.00 xG and York United 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.899 / defence 1.225 | York United attack 0.679 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.144. Data: 37 Atlético Ottawa games / 37 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 36% | Draw 31% | York United 33%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | York United 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 39% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atlético Ottawa at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. This conflicts with form data: Atlético Ottawa 70% | York United 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Jun 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 36% | Draw 31% | York United 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.00 / York United 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.899 / def 1.225 | York United attack 0.679 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
0.95
York United xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs York United kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs York United kicked off at 00:00 on Wednesday 15 June 2022 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Atlético Ottawa 0 - 0 York United.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs York United being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs York United part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs York United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 36% chance of winning, York United a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and York United in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. York United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atlético Ottawa's attack at 0.90x the league average against York United's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (0.68x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
36%
2.80
31%
3.20
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
1.96
0.95
York United xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
12%
8.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 0.95 for York United, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atlético Ottawa come into this having played 28 games, going 6W 8D 14L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, York United sit at 1.29 PPG from 28 outings (8W 12D 8L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 1.29 for York United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Atlético Ottawa's home form reads 3W 5D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, York United have taken 1.21 points per game from 14 outings (4W 5D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.25 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United in 68%.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and York United in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 6W 8D 14L in their last 28 games (0.93 PPG), while York United have gone 8W 12D 8L in their last 28 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or York United away?
York United's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.00 PPG; York United away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: York United won 4-1 on 27 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Atlético Ottawa
5
Draws
4
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 1, York United have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and York United last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Atlético Ottawa, 71% for York United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Atlético Ottawa) and 64% (York United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Atlético Ottawa's games and 71% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Atlético Ottawa's matches and 64% of York United's.
Do Atlético Ottawa and York United tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, York United in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atlético Ottawa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Atlético Ottawa and York United drew 0-0 in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.00 xG and York United 0.95 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa fell 1.0 short of their projected output. York United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.90 / defence 1.23 against York United attack 0.68 / defence 0.83, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 36% | Draw 31% | York United 33%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 43%, York United 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
York United's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 0.93 PPG, York United 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.