Vasco DA Gama 0-3 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees RB Bragantino travel to Estádio São Januário to take on Vasco DA Gama. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 May 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Vasco DA Gama — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Vasco DA Gama's home record at Estádio São Januário: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at Estádio São Januário than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, RB Bragantino have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
RB Bragantino's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vasco DA Gama 0.90 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vasco DA Gama register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, RB Bragantino in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Vasco DA Gama, 2 for RB Bragantino and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 3–0 with Vasco DA Gama winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Vasco DA Gama in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
RB Bragantino in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 49% versus RB Bragantino 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 53% | RB Bragantino 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.57 xG and RB Bragantino 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.048 / defence 1.030 | RB Bragantino attack 0.793 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.116. Data: 54 Vasco DA Gama games / 54 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 52% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 21%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | RB Bragantino 4.76. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasco DA Gama are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Vasco DA Gama 60% | RB Bragantino 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 52% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.57 / RB Bragantino 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.048 / def 1.030 | RB Bragantino attack 0.793 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
0.91
RB Bragantino xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs RB Bragantino?
Vasco DA Gama 0 - 3 RB Bragantino.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs RB Bragantino part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 52% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and RB Bragantino?
Record (6 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 2W | Draws 2 | RB Bragantino 2W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and RB Bragantino in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vasco DA Gama's attack rating (1.05) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.82
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.48
0.91
RB Bragantino xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
4%
22.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 0.91 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasco DA Gama come into this having played 76 games, going 27W 14D 35L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, RB Bragantino sit at 1.21 PPG from 76 outings (24W 20D 32L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasco DA Gama on 1.25 PPG, RB Bragantino on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vasco DA Gama's home form reads 18W 9D 11L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, RB Bragantino have taken 0.79 points per game from 38 outings (7W 9D 22L). That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Bragantino's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasco DA Gama come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.17 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino in 61%.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 27W 14D 35L in their last 76 games (1.25 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 24W 20D 32L in their last 76 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or RB Bragantino away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.66 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasco DA Gama and RB Bragantino runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Vasco DA Gama won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Vasco DA Gama
2
Draws
3
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and RB Bragantino?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, RB Bragantino have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 0-3 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 53%, RB Bragantino 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vasco DA Gama) and 53% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 26% of games; RB Bragantino in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play RB Bragantino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Vasco DA Gama's games and 63% of RB Bragantino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 53% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RB Bragantino run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Vasco DA Gama.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Vasco DA Gama 0-3 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.57 xG and RB Bragantino 0.91 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama fell 1.6 short of their projected output. RB Bragantino outscored their 0.91 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against RB Bragantino attack 0.79 / defence 1.02, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 52% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 21%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a RB Bragantino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 53%, RB Bragantino 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.25 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.