Vasco DA Gama 5-1 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama and Coritiba meet at Estádio São Januário in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 21 September 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vasco DA Gama have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Estádio São Januário this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Coritiba (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coritiba away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Vasco DA Gama, 1.00 for Coritiba — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Vasco DA Gama, 0 for Coritiba and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Vasco DA Gama half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Coritiba half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 50% versus Coritiba 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 32% | Coritiba 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.75 xG and Coritiba 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.858 / defence 1.161 | Coritiba attack 1.011 / defence 1.524. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 0.989. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.524 — this is suppressing Vasco DA Gama's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Vasco DA Gama games / 60 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 50% | Draw 26% | Coritiba 24%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Coritiba 4.17. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasco DA Gama at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vasco DA Gama 20% | Coritiba 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Sep 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 50% | Draw 26% | Coritiba 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.75 / Coritiba 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.858 / def 1.161 | Coritiba attack 1.011 / def 1.524 | league avg home 1.341 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Coritiba xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 21 September 2023 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
Vasco DA Gama 5 - 1 Coritiba.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 50% chance of winning, Coritiba a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Coritiba?
Record (1 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 0W | Draws 1 | Coritiba 0W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Coritiba in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Coritiba (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Vasco DA Gama's attack rating (0.86) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.52), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coritiba's attack (1.01x) against Vasco DA Gama's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.89
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.92
1.16
Coritiba xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
4%
23.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.16 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vasco DA Gama's recent record stands at 5W 5D 12L from 22 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coritiba, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 14L across 22 games — 0.64 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Vasco DA Gama against 0.64 for Coritiba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vasco DA Gama have managed 4W 1D 6L from 11 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Coritiba's away record stands at 1W 2D 8L across 11 trips, a 0.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasco DA Gama come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.05 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coritiba in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
Coritiba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 5W 5D 12L in their last 22 games (0.91 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 3W 5D 14L in their last 22 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Coritiba away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.18 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vasco DA Gama won 5-1 on 21 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Vasco DA Gama
2
Draws
0
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Coritiba?
From 3 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 1, Coritiba have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2026, when Coritiba 1-1 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Coritiba?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 27%, Coritiba 82% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Vasco DA Gama) and 82% (Coritiba).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 82% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 82% of Coritiba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Coritiba tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vasco DA Gama run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Coritiba 5-1 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.75 xG and Coritiba 1.16 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.86 / defence 1.16 against Coritiba attack 1.01 / defence 1.52, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 50% | Draw 26% | Coritiba 24%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 32%, Coritiba 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Coritiba's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 0.91 PPG, Coritiba 0.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm. Coritiba (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.