Sport Recife 0-1 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sport Recife at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sport Recife vs Atletico-MG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sport Recife host Atletico-MG at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 7 June 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 1.33 xG and Atletico-MG 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.962 / defence 1.150 | Atletico-MG attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.227. Data: 1 Sport Recife games / 1 Atletico-MG games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 40% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 33%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Atletico-MG 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sport Recife at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sport Recife offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Monday 7 Jun 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 40% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Sport Recife 1.33 / Atletico-MG 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.962 / def 1.150 | Atletico-MG attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Sport Recife (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Atletico-MG xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Sport Recife vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 7 June 2021 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Atletico-MG?
Sport Recife 0 - 1 Atletico-MG.
Where is Sport Recife vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Atletico-MG part of?
Sport Recife vs Atletico-MG is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 40% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sport Recife the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sport Recife and Atletico-MG will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Atletico-MG?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sport Recife and Atletico-MG in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sport Recife's attack at 0.96x the league average against Atletico-MG's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico-MG's attack versus Sport Recife's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sport Recife Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.74
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
2.53
1.20
Atletico-MG xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
9%
11.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sport Recife and 1.20 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Pre-Season
Atletico-MG
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Atletico-MG go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Atletico-MG won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sport Recife's record when hosting Atletico-MG specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
0
Draws
4
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Atletico-MG?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, Atletico-MG have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Atletico-MG last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Sport Recife 2-4 Atletico-MG.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Atletico-MG?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Atletico-MG defy the odds to beat Sport Recife 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico-MG beat Sport Recife 0-1 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 1.33 xG and Atletico-MG 1.20 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sport Recife fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Atletico-MG attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 40% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 33%, with Sport Recife to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Atletico-MG win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.